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Iran/United States: Who will give in first?

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US Ultimatum to Iran Ends, Cargo Ship Seized in Gulf of Oman

President Donald Trump stated to Bloomberg that the ultimatum expires “Wednesday evening, Washington time,” deeming an extension of the ceasefire as “very unlikely.” The deadline was theoretically set to end Tuesday night into Wednesday, Tehran time. Trump warned, “If American demands are not met by then, ‘many bombs will explode,'” he added, this time on PBS, after previously threatening in April to “annihilate an entire civilization.”

Iran has not yet formulated a “plan for the next round of negotiations” and no decision has been made on this subject, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh. He questioned the “seriousness” of the US in the diplomatic process and criticized the US for seizing an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, the naval blockade of Iranian ports, and delays in implementing the ceasefire in Lebanon.

In Tehran, where major airports reopened on Monday for the first time in weeks, life seems to be getting back to normal. However, people’s outlook remains grim amid the economic hardships and executions occurring in the country. Oil prices surged on Monday due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route for global oil supply.

Despite having control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is losing millions of dollars daily due to the American blockade on oil exports. The looming deadline for the ceasefire poses a risk of further destabilizing the country.

The Western countries, after decades of trying to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, are now facing an unprecedented and potentially long-lasting challenge. The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has changed Iran’s nuclear doctrine and strategic approach towards the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation is now a test of endurance between the US and Iran, as both sides struggle with economic issues and strategic decisions. The standoff in the Gulf has shifted from a bargaining chip to a potential military flashpoint.

Recent actions have brought maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill, with only a few ships managing to pass through. The US military has ordered several ships to turn back, causing a significant disruption in commercial shipping in the region.