From the United States to China, global wine consumption continues to decline

Affected by economic crises and generational changes, global wine consumption continued to decline in 2025, by 2.7% year-on-year, to a level unseen since 1957, estimated the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) on Tuesday.

Wine purchases fell to 208 million hectoliters (mhl), according to the organization’s annual report. Since 2018, global consumption has reduced by 14%.

Among the top ten wine markets, only Portugal saw demand grow last year, driven by domestic consumption.

Behind this picture, structural changes related to new preferences and modes of consumption, as well as post-Covid constrained purchasing power and increased costs and prices are at play.

Three countries in particular have fueled this decline: United States, France, China.

The United States, the world’s leading market long considered “growing and resilient,” slowed down, with a further -4.3% in 2025 to 31.9 mhl. The OIV attributes this to “a combination of economic and behavioral reasons”: less alcohol among young people, diversification in beverage choices, price sensitivity, constrained purchasing power…

The impact of customs duties imposed by Donald Trump is still difficult to isolate amid all these factors, notes John Barker, OIV’s director.

These tariff measures, combined with the euro/dollar parity, have affected trade, he says; however, while “we have seen the American market reduce in volume, in value it has decreased a bit, not much.”

– “Seizing the moment” –

As the EU’s top consumer, France continues a descent begun decades ago, notes OIV, with -3.2% (22 mhl) last year.

The EU (48% of global consumption) also sees Italy decline (-9.4%, to 20.2 mhl), as well as Germany, Spain… Outside the EU, the United Kingdom and Russia are declining, along with Switzerland… Brazil and Japan are among the few consuming more.

Finally, China, the eleventh largest consumer globally, down from 6th in 2020, has been consistently reducing its purchases since 2018: 4.8 mhl in 2025, a -13% year-on-year, -61% since 2020.

The demand in China “is particularly sensitive to income and price changes,” notes OIV, also noting that it is transforming, less tied to formal occasions, more diverse.

Overall, how far can this decline continue?

“Economic factors are really important,” and very influential post-Covid, notes Barker, although societal changes are “difficult to control.”

For him, the situation is hardly comparable to the 1957 consumption level, given how the wine consumption model has shifted from a “volume-driven model” to one based on value and “premiumization.”

According to Ananda Roy, vice president of Circana, the decline in consumption in Europe and the United States, besides lesser interest among young people for alcohol, is due to bottle prices and the rise of innovative drinks.

As a market trend specialist advising producers and distributors, he advocates for new formats (smaller bottles, quality wine “cubis”…) as home consumption strengthens, focusing on “reduced calories and sugar, and little or no alcohol,” the famous “no-lo” wines.

He is “optimistic if the sector seizes the moment and innovates beyond the label and the bottle shape.”

The rise of no-lo, OIV hasn’t really measured it yet: “probably 1 to 2% of the market,” according to Barker.

“Technology and product understanding are developing very rapidly,” he notes, also mentioning the growth of sparkling wines, attention to sustainability…

At the same time, global production continues to shrink, mainly due to climate uncertainty.

In 2025, 227 mhl were harvested: more than in 2024, a historically weak year (+0.6%), but -9.4% compared to the average of the last five years.

What about a new setback with the Middle East conflict now?

“It’s a bit early to make projections,” says the official. But “what we can observe with international events affecting trade is that anything impacting the cost of living or transportation has repercussions on the wine market.”