In a time of deep geopolitical transition and transformation, the norms of the old order, which Albanians have benefited from, are increasingly being ignored. The world has become unpredictable. The politics of power are resurging, and security is once again at the heart of international relations. Regardless of size, states have long been grappling with the consequences of this situation at political, academic, and social levels. History teaches us that an established order endures for a certain period. After World War I, this order lasted for two decades. Another, established after World War II, lasted for four decades. And following the fall of the Berlin Wall, political scientists like Francis Fukuyama discussed the “end of history” and the adoption of liberal democracy as the ultimate form of government. Three decades after the end of the Cold War, we are witnessing the end of history. A new order is emerging.
Even though the consequences are not yet felt everywhere, the disintegration of the global order is a bitter reality. The competition for energy, technology, food supply chains, industry, and finance has intensified. Anyone hoping for a quick return to normalcy is wasting precious time. The situation we are in is akin to a slow-building tsunami, with the waves not immediately visible.
This period of transition presents several characteristics. The first is the rupture of the West and the transatlantic alliance. The West remains a normative ideal, but currently does not exist as a political reality. The strong pole of the United States persists, although its influence is more limited than in the two decades following the fall of the Berlin Wall. The second characteristic is China’s positioning as the guarantor of the world order, representing the greatest potential to challenge American dominance. The differences between China and the United States extend beyond political, military, and ideological aspects to various fields, from technology to major international projects.
Additionally, beyond the characteristics of the early 21st century such as a single pole and those of the 20th century like competition between superpowers, a third characteristic can be distinguished today, reminiscent of the 19th century, due to the partial understanding of the great powers regarding the tacit tolerance of international law violations. Regardless of a state’s size and significance on the international stage, it must have a foreign policy strategy, especially during this transition period. The three pillars defining the nature of foreign policy are values, interests, and power. These elements are crucial as the balance and dynamics of the world order evolve.
For Albania, one of the challenges in foreign policy is to maintain coherence and sustainability of actions according to the values it upholds and its interests, all while preserving its strategic alliances. This is essential, especially in this period of uncertainty where references are constantly changing. If our interests and aspirations define the horizon of our foreign policy, their values and sustainability must be the guiding principles. The transatlantic rupture bodes ill for Albania and our region, where the United States has been perceived as the security guarantor since the fall of the Iron Curtain, while Europeans are seen as resistant to using force. The European Union is a project of American support after World War II. Today, disagreements between the United States and the EU are deeper than ever. The US national security strategy reflects this reality, with the EU being described as the cause of the “extinction of the European civilization.”
The evolution of the new world order and the role the transatlantic alliance will play will unfold in the near future. Countries like Albania are neither key actors nor mere spectators in this story. Uncertainty is inherent in international relations, especially during transitions from one era to another. Understanding the causes of change is crucial. Action based on our values and interests will allow us to navigate this new era of international relations. Our relationship with the United States is invaluable. Equally important is not to miss the opportunity to join the EU, given the current geopolitical situation.
Simultaneous wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with fractures in the transatlantic alliance, have revealed a multifaceted aspect of our foreign policy. The relevance of dialogues with Putin remains uncertain, especially as critical voices towards Russian aggression emerge. The impact of such proposals on our region and conflict resolutions raises important questions as international relations evolve.
Efforts to separate Albania from other European countries regarding the presence at the Peace Council are counterproductive. Our role is alongside the United States when our contribution is valued. Strategic foreign policy requires a balance between interests and values, especially during times of transition.
Additionally, a loss of influence over Albanians in the region has weakened decision-making and slowed progress on rights. The focus on normalizing relations with Serbia has diminished Albania’s regional influence.
The announcement to engage in military operations against Iran from Albanian territory raises credibility concerns. Strategic foreign policy demands strategy, time, and patience in addressing complex issues. Perfect diplomacy is rarely attainable in today’s world. The importance of history and geography in foreign policy decisions cannot be understated. Finding fair and lasting solutions is essential, rather than selectively dealing with problems.
Understanding maritime issues with Greece and preparing adequately before seeking international jurisdiction is crucial. Handling such complex foreign policy challenges requires strategy, time, and patience. The repercussions of decisions are often judged by history.
In conclusion, foreign policy decisions must be made with deliberation and long-term objectives in mind to effectively manage international relations. Foreign policy strategies should be guided by national values and interests to navigate evolving global dynamics.
