The eyes of the Lebanese are turned towards Washington, where a new chapter in history may be unfolding. However, Lebanese officials closely monitoring negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv remain cautious. According to them, a process has indeed been initiated, but it may be lengthy as it represents a profound change that not only concerns Lebanon but the entire region, with the American mediator not being truly neutral between the two parties.
While the American president is keen on the Lebanese issue and has personally taken charge of it, some officials believe he thought it would be easier to handle. However, underestimating the complexities of Lebanese reality. Donald Trump aims to quickly secure an agreement between Lebanon and Israel, to showcase the famous handshake photo between President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a move to expedite the process, he even appointed Michel Issa as the US ambassador to Lebanon. Issa’s candid and unique diplomatic approach has surprised Lebanese officials in his interactions. Using compelling statements like questioning the stance between Israel and Hezbollah, and pointing out the absence of gratitude for spared areas from Israeli bombings. This direct manner is unconventional in diplomacy but has garnered some level of acceptance among the Lebanese.
In the ongoing circumstances, while war rages in the South, Lebanon is not inclined to move as swiftly and extensively as desired by the American president. Therefore, the prime condition set for continuing negotiations is a complete ceasefire to pave the way for concrete discussions on security arrangements along the border and the South initially and potentially towards a more comprehensive armistice agreement. This logical approach is essential, as Lebanon rejects negotiations under fire to prevent Israeli pressure tactics during talks. However, the condition that Israel retains the right to strike Hezbollah where deemed necessary poses a challenge for Lebanon’s negotiation stance.
The lack of American-Israeli confidence in Lebanon’s commitment to disarming Hezbollah and all its military assets poses a significant hurdle. The Lebanese government seeks to avoid aligning too closely with Israel in the fight against Hezbollah, underscoring a fundamental difference despite shared goals. The proposition of forming a special military unit within the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah encounters skepticism due to concerns about unit cohesion and its mission.
It is evident that the negotiation process initiated on Thursday remains intricate due to internal Lebanese challenges and regional developments. Officially, this process may stretch over a year or more before reaching a minimal agreement with Israel, but time constraints driven by Trump’s urgency and the escalating situation in the South press Lebanon to seek understanding from the US regarding Lebanese reality. Additionally, Lebanon looks towards positive roles from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other regional states while monitoring developments between Iran and the United States.
