Donald Trump is applying pressure again. The American president stated on Monday, May 11, that the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was now “on life support” after harshly criticizing Iran’s response to the American plan aimed at permanently ending the conflict. Iran, on the other hand, claims to be ready to “respond” to any new attack.
After more than a month of ceasefire, diplomatic discussions remain at a standstill. Both sides continue to exchange proposals through the Pakistani mediator in an attempt to strengthen the ceasefire, but with no major breakthrough.
From the White House, Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest response, calling it “good to throw in the trash.” The American president then painted a particularly bleak picture, saying, “The ceasefire is on massive life support, like when the doctor comes in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has exactly a 1% chance of survival’.”
Tehran quickly responded by stating that they were ready to “respond and teach a lesson” in case of aggression.
In a call to Fox News, Donald Trump also mentioned considering restarting the operation aimed at protecting ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by Iran since the Israeli-American offensive on February 28.
This mission was suspended on May 5, with Washington claiming that “great progress” had been made towards an agreement with Tehran – an agreement that eventually never materialized.
Another factor that could escalate the situation: according to the Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates reportedly carried out strikes in April against Iranian oil installations on Lavan Island in the Gulf. Abu Dhabi did not confirm this involvement, but it could signal a regional turning point.
“The biggest energy shock”
“The only thing we have demanded are Iran’s legitimate rights,” stated Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esma’il Baghaei Hamaneh. Tehran’s demands include “an end to the war in the region,” lifting the American blockade on Iranian ports, and “the release of assets belonging to the Iranian people that have been unjustly frozen for years.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran is proposing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a simultaneous easing of the American blockade. Tehran would also discuss nuclear issues within 30 days and agree to “dilute” some of its enriched uranium, while refusing to dismantle its nuclear facilities.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive oil prices up. On Tuesday morning, Brent crude surpassed $105 per barrel, while WTI approached $100.
For Amin Nasser, CEO of the Saudi giant Aramco, this conflict has triggered “the biggest energy shock” ever experienced. He warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, it would take months for the market to rebalance, suggesting that a return to normalcy may not occur before 2027.
Risk of a “major humanitarian crisis”
The UN also fears the humanitarian consequences of a prolonged blockade of the strait, crucial not only for global oil but also for the transport of fertilizers. Jorge Moreira da Silva, head of a UN working group, warned that a “major humanitarian crisis” could occur “within a few weeks.”
The Soufan Center believes that “Tehran shows no sign of surrender” and is banking on the surge in oil prices and shortages to pressure Donald Trump to end the conflict without obtaining the concessions he demands, especially on nuclear issues.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, despite an officially declared ceasefire since April 17, strikes continue between Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. New discussions between Lebanese and Israeli officials are scheduled to take place in Washington on Thursday and Friday in an attempt to pave the way for peace negotiations.
