Supertankers are flocking to American ports as maritime traffic remains highly disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz. These tensions could boost the profits of certain American companies.
U.S. oil exports are surging to a historic record. In April, they are expected to reach nearly 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, up from about 4 million barrels in March, according to Kpler, a specialized company. Its analysts also note an influx of supertankers heading to American ports in the Gulf of Mexico in the coming weeks, while maritime traffic remains highly disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. military has imposed a blockade, keeping prices at a high level. These flows are particularly directed towards Asia, where refineries are rushing to secure available oil due to fears of shortages.
Donald Trump emphasizes this point to justify his strategy.
“A large number of completely empty tankers, among the largest in the world, are currently heading to the United States to load up with the best and sweetest oil and gas in the world,” he rejoiced on his social network last Saturday.
However, American production will not be able to compensate for the loss of oil usually passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Global supply declined by 10 million barrels per day in March, following attacks on energy infrastructures in the Gulf and navigation difficulties, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA estimates that the offensive against Iran has caused the “largest disruption in the history of the global oil tanker market.”
Towards a surge in oil companies’ profits
The American president is trying not to see this as bad news, even though gas prices have reached record levels for this period in the United States, dampening households’ purchasing power. “The United States is by far the world’s largest oil producer. Therefore, when oil prices rise, we make significant profits,” he assured in mid-March.
The ongoing energy shock will indeed increase the transfer of money from net oil-importing countries (like France) to exporting countries (like the United States or Russia). But in essence, it is mainly the oil companies and their shareholders who will reap significant profits from the surge in prices, especially those whose activities are less developed in the Middle East.
American shale oil producers could pocket an additional $63 billion in revenue this year if oil prices remain around $100 a barrel, according to a study by Rystad, reported by the Financial Times. However, they have warned that they may not necessarily use these profits to increase their production capacities. The results of groups with significant assets in the Middle East, such as ExxonMobil, could be further penalized by the ongoing crisis.
American majors had already benefited from the 2022 energy crisis
American companies were already the main beneficiaries of the latest energy crisis, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the work of economist Isabella Weber, a professor at the University of Massachusetts. She and her co-authors noted that they had earned $301 billion in net profit in 2022, nearly a third of the $916 billion earned by publicly traded oil and gas companies. These studies showed that this windfall was unevenly distributed.
“50% of the profits went to the top 1%. In contrast, the bottom 50% received only 1% of the profits,” concluded this study.
In the end, the wealthiest households who invested part of their wealth in oil and gas companies were able to offset some or all of the costs associated with inflation, unlike the most modest households. This situation is likely to repeat itself. This shock comes at a difficult time for American households. Their real income had already contracted in February, before the start of the war against Iran, and inflation had risen sharply due to higher energy prices, standing at 3.3% year-on-year in March.
