JSS: What is your view on the negotiations between the United States and Iran and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Donald Trump?
D.B.: I was pleased with the opening of these negotiations, even though it was clear that they would not result quickly due to the radically divergent views of the two parties. It was bound to take time. Unfortunately, J.D. Vance, who led the US delegation, ended it after 21 hours.
We know he was constantly in contact with Donald Trump and had regular contact with Netanyahu. This is never a good sign. It led to the President of the United States, who doesn’t understand much about diplomacy, ordering everything to stop.
However, I believe that negotiations will resume. The game is not over. It is important to understand that the Pakistanis, Omanis, and Chinese also play a role in the negotiations, which points towards a necessary resumption of negotiations between the two parties.
To pressure the Iranians, Trump decided to block the Strait of Hormuz. He plans to not allow boats supplying from Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf to pass. But practically, what would that look like? Imagine if a Chinese super-tanker comes to supply from an Iranian port in the Persian Gulf. It fits within the framework defined by Donald Trump. How would he stop it? Would he dare to fire at the Chinese super-tanker or intercept it?
It is clear that there is a significant gap between Donald Trump’s whims, to which we are unfortunately accustomed, and the reality on the ground. We will need to closely monitor what happens in the hours to come. We are never safe from the worst, especially in an extremely volatile situation.
However, let’s keep our reason, let’s stay calm. A week ago, Donald Trump promised to completely destroy the Iranian civilization. And a few hours later, there was a ceasefire.
JSS: How could a resumption of armed conflict in Iran, especially regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz, impact the global economy, particularly from an energy perspective?
D.B.: If Trump were to decide alone, we could be very worried. Fortunately, there are economic and financial interests around him that he cannot ignore. The oil markets are a crucial element in the decision-making of the Trump administration. It is not lost on anyone that the 40 days of war against Iran significantly affected the oil markets and consequently the global economy.
We are in a situation where we can consider that major capitalist groups are pressuring Trump to calm down and find a compromise. Paradoxically, a glimmer of hope could come from the international financial markets. And yet, I am not used to trusting them. But this time, they could play a role, if not positive, at least not negative. This is a factor to consider.
I read that a number of economists have already sounded the alarm. They believe that this crisis, initially related to oil, has consequences on many sectors of the economy, and could lead to an international economic crisis more severe than that of 1973. This is why those who hold the capital may try to signal the end of the game.
Moreover, we must not forget that the Arab states of the Gulf, who were against the start of this war, were not listened to by Donald Trump. They were affected in their economic and material interests.
Furthermore, we know that they have invested heavily in the United States. They can pressure Trump by threatening to withdraw some of their assets from the United States. For instance, the Saudis invested 5 billion dollars in funds managed by Mr. Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. This is a factor that could calm Trump’s warmongering tendencies.
On the other hand, Israel’s and Netanyahu’s attitude, wanting to continue to the end like savages, negatively influences Donald Trump. Who will win the showdown? In my opinion, economic and financial interests are more important than the genocidal tendencies of Benjamin Netanyahu.
JSS: The negotiations are based on the Iranian peace plan: what message does this send? What effects could this have on US influence in the world, and the geopolitical stability of the Middle East?
D.B.: The points presented by the Trump administration and the Iranian side are contradictory. This is a classic negotiation game. We start from far to reach a compromise. However, Trump, in his personal framework, does not accept compromise. Everything must be done on his terms.
What is important is that the Iranians were able to present their points to negotiate because they are in a negotiation logic. This clearly shows that they are not defeated. Never in history has a defeated country set conditions for opening negotiations. But are they the winners? Militarily, no, even if we were all surprised by the Iranians’ resistance and resilience capabilities. They have endured severe blows. We will assess the importance of this in the coming weeks.
40 days of US and Israeli bombings have caused damages at all levels. Military, economic, cultural buildings, monuments, ancient mosques have been hit. Over 50 universities have been targeted. We can see the intention of destruction from the US and their Israeli partners. But the Iranians have resisted, striking undeniable blows against Israel, which is new, and then against the Arab states of the Gulf.
“Since February 28, the United States have been unable to impose their point of view.”
The Iranians are not politically defeated. The regime has undergone internal reorganization. The religious dignitaries now have less control, and it is the Revolutionary Guards who are in charge. They are probably tougher negotiators than the religious hierarchs. It is a total failure on the part of Trump, no matter what he may proclaim.
Now, what are the consequences? It is complicated, but I believe we are at a political turning point in international relations. We have been witnessing, over the past few years, a de-Westernization of the world. Western powers no longer have a monopoly on power. For me, this is excellent news.
And since February 28, the United States, regardless of their military power, have been unable to impose their point of view, and a country weakened by years of sanctions is in a position to not yield to the American-Israeli aggression.
This is of considerable importance, because Southern countries will take note. This means that the United States and their Western partners can no longer enforce their rules. We are in a situation of a qualitative break in international relations. For the whole world to see, the United States are experiencing a political defeat.
