Vladimir Putin begins a 48-hour visit to China today. What to expect from this trip?
This visit was planned well in advance, so it should not be seen as a spontaneous reaction to Donald Trump’s recent visit to Beijing. The timing of both events is mainly symbolic. This trip will primarily be an opportunity for Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to reaffirm the strength of their relationship. China has no intention of changing its policy towards Russia. Beijing believes it has obtained some initial concessions from Donald Trump, but this does not undermine its strategic support for Moscow.
According to some reports, Xi Jinping reportedly mentioned Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump, suggesting that the Russian president may one day regret his Ukrainian adventure. However, this is primarily diplomatic talk. In essence, China aims to maintain its ties with Russia, a deeply asymmetrical relationship where Beijing clearly holds the dominant position. This relationship provides China with significant economic, energy, and geopolitical advantages.
Is the relationship between the two countries flourishing despite this imbalance?
Definitely. Economically, Chinese imports of Russian hydrocarbons have significantly increased, especially to offset disruptions in supplies from the Middle East.
Geopolitically, Beijing believes that Washington has not presented any serious resistance to certain requests from Xi Jinping. In this context, China has no reason to reconsider its strategy towards Russia.
Is this an alliance based on a convergence of views?
It is an alliance of convenience that is extremely beneficial to both parties, going beyond a mere partnership. It is worth noting a particularly revealing statement by Wang Yi, the Chinese diplomacy’s second in command. Last July, he stated that “China cannot afford a Russian defeat in Ukraine.”
This statement reflects a fundamental strategic reality: Beijing has a vested interest in prolonging the war. The conflict ties up Western resources, diverts attention from Europe and the United States to East Asia, and provides China with precious time to strengthen its economy, military, and international influence. The longer the war lasts, the more time China gains to reinforce itself.
What is China’s concrete role in the war in Ukraine?
China supplies Russia with many dual-use components, including electronics and equipment that could be used for military purposes.
Without this support, whether technological, industrial, or economic, Russia would face much greater difficulties in sustaining its war effort. Chinese assistance also helps the Russian economy withstand Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure.
Do Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping personally like each other?
The two leaders know each other very well and have met on numerous occasions. The pivotal moment of their closeness was their meeting on February 4, 2022, a few weeks before the invasion of Ukraine. On that occasion, they proclaimed “limitless cooperation.”
This declaration was not mere rhetoric. It suggested that Beijing was likely informed about Moscow’s intentions. Since the conflict began, China has never condemned Russia’s invasion. Xi Jinping believes in the gradual decline of the United States. His strategy is long-term. While Donald Trump prioritizes immediate agreements, Beijing advances patiently and systematically consolidates its positions.
Why is Beijing hesitating on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, this gigantic pipeline supposed to connect the two countries?
China demands that Russia finance a large part of this project itself, showcasing the power dynamics between the two countries. Beijing sets its conditions, aware that Moscow needs this pipeline more than the reverse.
Furthermore, China has significant strategic hydrocarbon reserves, allowing it to act without urgency. However, Beijing has no interest in a sustained destabilization of the Middle East. China needs stability to support its growth and exports. It could encourage Iran to seek a diplomatic compromise.
Does the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis, often discussed as a mirror image of the West, actually exist?
Yes, to some extent. These countries are very different but share a deep hostility towards the West. Each has its specific disruptive power. Together, they contribute to weakening the international order dominated by Western democracies.
However, China always acts in its own interests. It has no real allies. If Vladimir Putin were to suffer a major defeat, Beijing could quickly distance itself from him.
