The global economy will suffer this year from the consequences of the war in the Middle East, according to the updated forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on Tuesday, with overall growth limited to 3.1%, down from the previously expected 3.3%. “Our baseline forecasts are based on a relatively short conflict with a temporary disruption in the energy market that will disappear next year,” explained the IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, to AFP, noting that “before the war, we were preparing to raise our growth forecasts.”
The United States is expected to be among the countries least affected economically by the conflict that began on February 28. The institution forecasts a growth of 2.3% in 2026, 0.1 point lower than the previous projection in January.
For the eurozone, the IMF has lowered its growth forecast by 0.2 points to 1.1% for 2026 compared to its January estimates. All major economies in the eurozone are affected to varying degrees: the growth forecast is reduced to 0.8% in Germany (-0.3 points), 0.5% in Italy (-0.2), and 2.1% in Spain (-0.2), with France faring slightly better with a revision of 0.1 point to 0.9%. Outside the European Union, the United Kingdom is hit harder (-0.5 point to 0.8%).
