It’s the first day of the visit, Xi Jinping told Donald Trump that a conflict was possible if China and the United States “handled poorly” the Taiwan issue – a warning in an otherwise very cordial atmosphere.
Just before boarding Air Force One for Beijing, Trump announced that he would discuss with the top Chinese leader Xi Jinping the issue of US weapons sales to Taiwan. This statement raised alarm in Taipei. It is entirely unusual: why would the US president agree to discuss with China this question that his predecessors refused to address?
The United States is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act, a law passed by Congress in 1979, at the recognition of Beijing by Washington, to provide Taiwan with the means to ensure its defense; Beijing knows this, protests for the record with each contract, and has accommodated it until now.
What has changed? The answer is known: it’s Donald Trump and his transactional diplomacy, everything is negotiable. Everything, including Taiwan? This is the great fear of the 23 million democratic inhabitants whose return to the “motherland” Beijing increasingly demands.
Can the United States abandon Taiwan? The answer would undoubtedly be negative, if one overlooked the unpredictable personality of Donald Trump. The reasons are multiple, both linked to Taiwan’s domination of the semiconductor industry, the truly democratic nature of the rule, and strategic considerations: Taiwan is a natural barrier to the high seas of the Pacific.
But above all, abandoning Taiwan to Chinese demands would signal the end of Washington’s role in the security of the Indo-Pacific region, and the recognition of Beijing’s hegemony over Asia. Most Asian countries have been satisfied until now with a balance that allowed them to benefit from the Chinese economy and American security, a “have your cake and eat it too” situation that did not force them to choose sides.
Trump is shaking things up because in his taste for the “deal,” no one knows what he really thinks about Taiwan. American advisers fear the private discussions he must have with Xi Jinping, who has made the taking of Taiwan a personal matter to settle in his lifetime. Beijing asks the Americans to more clearly state their opposition to Taiwan’s independence; this would already be an “act of war” for Xi Jinping!
Recent months have seen several developments. First, the entry of Japan with its new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. She angered Beijing by stating that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would represent a security risk for Japan and force Tokyo to intervene. The stakes suddenly raised a notch.
And Taiwan’s domestic politics are also in play, with the recent visit to Beijing by the new leader of the Kuomintang, Taiwan’s opposition party, more open to rapprochement with the mainland. Ms. Cheng Li-wun was received by Xi Jinping, a meeting that could allow Donald Trump to consider that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait should talk without adding fuel to the fire.
Strait of Hormuz against the Taiwan Strait? The equation is tempting, even if it doesn’t make much sense. But Donald Trump is so desperate to gain Beijing’s support to get out of his Iranian quagmire that anything is possible. This is the nightmare of the Taiwanese: the impossible deal that no one dares to believe in.
