According to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production for the 2026-2027 agricultural season is projected to reach approximately 538 million tons. This marks the first decline since 2015, ending eleven years of continuous growth. This development may result in a shortage of this staple food.
Two factors are influencing the global rice supply. The decline in production is mainly concentrated in key producing countries such as India, Myanmar, and the United States, with expected decreases of up to 15% compared to the previous year. According to an analysis by the USDA, three main factors explain this situation: the surge in input costs, unfavorable weather conditions, and geopolitical tensions disrupting trade flows.
Cost of production: The surge in prices of fertilizers and energy, partly due to conflicts in the Middle East, has led farmers in many Asian countries to consider abandoning their crops due to low profits.
El Niño Weather: Meteorologists forecast below-average rainfall in India—one of the major rice-exporting countries—due to the El Niño phenomenon, increasing the risk of drought in key rice-growing regions from June onwards.
International rice prices are experiencing significant fluctuations. Forecasts of tightening supply have immediately impacted financial and commercial markets. According to Bloomberg data, wholesale prices of Thai white rice—a reference in the Asian market—have increased by approximately 15% since late March 2026. At the Chicago Board of Trade, rice futures prices also recorded an 8% increase last week, marking their strongest surge in two years.
Challenges related to food security and inflation: The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) emphasizes that rice provides about 20% of the world’s nutritional energy. A drop in production, while consumption and trade remain at record levels, will deplete global reserves.
In developing countries, particularly in Asia, rice represents a significant portion of household expenses. Rising rice prices not only threaten food security but also exacerbate inflation. Economists warn that price shocks could lead to drastic policy interventions, such as export bans or price controls, increasing the volatility of global commodity markets.
Source: https://baonghean.vn/san-luong-gao-toan-cau-du-bao-giam-xuong-538-trieu-tan-de-doa-an-ninh-luong-thuc-10336884.html
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