A wave of concern is sweeping over the leaders of very small businesses (TPE) in the face of an unprecedented international context. The latest wave of the Ifop barometer, conducted in April 2026 among 1,001 TPE leaders employing up to 19 employees, reveals that 82% of them are alarmed by the global geopolitical situation. This collective fear vividly illustrates the increasing interconnection of the French economy with international turmoil.
This concern flourishes in an economically barren environment. Only 16% of TPE leaders trust the economic measures announced or implemented by Emmanuel Macron and his government, a level that remains among the lowest recorded since the inception of the barometer in 2002.
A general pessimism towards global crises
Optimism about the overall business climate in France is dangerously eroding, with only 17% of leaders feeling positive. Even more concerning, relative optimism about their own business activity is decreasing further, plummeting to 40% – the third-lowest level since the study began.
TPE bosses accurately identify the roots of their international troubles. The successive conflicts in the Middle East top their concerns, cited by 60% of surveyed leaders. The conflict led by Russia in Ukraine (31%) and the aggressive foreign policy of the United States (25%) complete this anxiety-inducing geopolitical picture.
This apprehension is legitimate due to the anticipation of tangible repercussions. The survey reveals that 84% of TPE leaders fear major negative consequences on their ecosystem in the next six months, compared to only 44% in the previous October 2025 measurement.
Financial difficulties in constant aggravation
The increasing pessimism of leaders is most evident in their financial struggles. Nearly one in two TPEs (46%) now face cash flow problems, setting a record since the measures were initiated. More alarming, 24% confess to facing significant or quite important difficulties, also reaching a historic level.
This financial deterioration could lead to business closures. Among struggling TPEs, 41% risk being forced to declare bankruptcy or cease operations, including 26% within six months. These figures indicate a structural weakening of the economic fabric of very small businesses.
The job market in TPEs also reflects this general gloom. Only 8% of leaders report having hired or planning to hire staff, while 7% have cut or plan to cut jobs, leaving a small positive differential of 1 point in favor of job creation.
Limited exposure but amplified fears
Ironically, the international commercial exchanges of TPEs remain relatively limited. Only 33% of leaders report importing part of their purchases of goods and services, while 13% engage in exports. These flows are mainly focused on Europe: 74% of importing TPEs source from the European Union, and 93% of exporting TPEs sell their products there.
Nevertheless, this seemingly moderate exposure does not alleviate concerns. Exporting TPE leaders show a higher level of preoccupation (91%) above average, confirming the correlation between international openness and anxiety levels. The increasing interdependence of the global economy explains this heightened sensitivity to geopolitical tensions, even for less internationalized businesses.
Adaptation measures already underway
In the face of these challenges, TPE leaders reject passivity. 90% of them have adopted or are considering adaptation measures to the international context, up by 11 points compared to March 2023. The preferred strategies revolve around several axes: 70% of leaders focus on reducing current expenses, 56% postpone investments, and 55% pass on cost increases to their sales prices. 30% of entrepreneurs are modifying their product or service offerings.
The rise in fuel prices, a direct consequence of geopolitical tensions, also necessitates adjustments. Among affected TPEs, 63% consolidate their travel and 54% reduce their business trips. However, 49% pass on this increase to their rates, potentially fueling an inflationary spiral.
A call for government support
In this precarious context, TPE leaders hope for targeted public support. Their requests converge on lightening social charges, with 49% calling for a reduction in social charges on salaries and the same proportion demanding a cut in employer contributions. These measures far surpass the establishment of a tariff shield on energy (33%) or a freeze on business taxes (24%).
This prioritization of needs reveals the urgency felt by bosses in the face of the burden of social charges, perceived as a handicap to competitiveness in a deteriorating economic environment.
The evolution of the morale of TPE leaders reflects a laborious adaptation to new global geopolitical balances. Caught between increasing economic interconnection and structural fragility, these businesses that make up the backbone of the French economy navigate an ocean of persistent uncertainties. Their resilience will be crucial in maintaining employment stability and territorial economic dynamics in the coming months.
