The war in Iran, recently labeled by Donald Trump as a “small skirmish,” is putting the Iranian political regime to the test. The country not only faces numerous bombings but has also lost several of its top leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Chief Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohammad Pakpour, and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani.
Despite these major losses, the country, far from collapsing, is showing unexpected resilience. This resilience has been forged during a series of political conflicts spanning over half a century, leading the regime to evolve into a unique hybrid model that combines a bloody theocracy with truly functional democratic institutions.
The fall of Shah started in 1978 when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi addressed the nation in the midst of unprecedented protests, promising to end repression and corruption, restore social justice, and organize free elections. However, he simultaneously announced the establishment of a military government, breaking the trust of society. This led to factions forming an anti-Shah coalition, including Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, supported by a network of mosques and the “bazaar,” a network of traders, intermediaries, and lenders of all sizes.
After the fall of Shah, power did not stabilize around a single political force but around an extremely broad and fragile coalition, uniting Islamists, liberals, nationalists, and leftist movements. This alliance quickly fell apart, with Ayatollah Khomeini and his close associates imposing a new power structure. The Iranian state then became a hybrid system, blending republican institutions and theocratic structures non-hierarchically, with powers overlapping among the Supreme Leader, President, Parliament, and religious or revolutionary bodies.
Over the years, the Iranian regime has relied on security organizations that now play a central role in the political system. For example, the Revolutionary Guards have become a major military, political, and economic force. Initially tasked with protecting the 1979 Islamic revolution and preventing any return of the former regime or coup attempts, they have emerged as one of the strongest and most influential pillars of the Iranian regime.
The multiplication of security structures has strengthened the political system, neutralizing protests before they can solidify, such as student revolts, reformist movements, and the Green Movement. The regime has learned to absorb crisis periods, with internal conflicts often reinforcing dominant factions like religious and security institutions. Each political confrontation reshapes the system’s balance without challenging its foundations.
In Iran, opposition has always been deeply divided. Since the revolution, ideological differences between Islamists, liberals, Marxists, and nationalists have prevented any common strategy, weakening every attempt to oppose the regime.
Simultaneously, the regime has shown remarkable adaptability, even in major crises like the investigation into the assassinations of dissidents and political figures launched in January 1999 by Mohammad Khatami. These events do not lead to collapse but are quickly managed, controlled, and absorbed by a system designed to survive its own contradictions.
