“Today, data is uncertainty.” In one sentence, Denis Lauretou, regional director of the Bank of France, summed up – during the 8th edition of Point Conjoncture, held in the La Marseillaise tower – an economic climate suspended by international tensions.
Behind the numbers, a reality is gradually emerging. The crisis in the Middle East is not distant, it is already spreading into the real economy, through energy prices, raw materials, and everyday goods.
Denis Lauretou warns of the effects of the energy shock. “We are already seeing impacts on prices, services, and consumer goods. The question is whether an inflationary spiral will set in.” Projections suggest limited GDP growth of 0.9% and inflation around 1.7% in an intermediate scenario. “The context remains uncertain and heavily depends on geopolitical developments.”
However, some indicators persist. Business financing continues to increase, with interest rates stabilizing around 3.5%. “Investment holds, unlike the cash flow which is declining significantly,” he clarifies. A sign of…
