Geopolitical, the dominant fundamental factor of the moment Military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran since Saturday, February 28th have had a strong impact on international financial markets. Volatility is particularly high in the global stock market, which saw a 10% sell-off before recovering since early April. As for the price of Bitcoin, it shows amazing resilience as the only major risky asset in the stock market that has been rising since the start of the conflict. But overall, risky assets in the stock market are experiencing volatility because geopolitical news evolves every day between optimism and pessimism, and most investors wonder when to return to buying in a serene manner. Ceasefires, negotiations, negotiations breakdown, peace agreements, Strait of Hormuz normalization duration, and more—the fundamental newsflow is even more erratic than market volatility. The barometers of geopolitical stress and its impact on global economic growth are the decisive fundamental factors. Oil prices, natural gas prices, uranium prices, market interest rates, inflation expectations, energy supply of major economic powers in Asia, and more—there are numerous parameters of global macro risk and it is difficult to know what to prioritize before returning to buying. Price of oil and maritime traffic through Ormuz, two decisive indicators I propose to closely monitor the two following barometers that seem decisive: – The technical signals of oil price on the stock market with a minimum valid bearish technical signal that must be given before massively repositioning for purchase – The evolution of the number of oil and gas tankers actually crossing the Strait of Hormuz These two barometers are the most tangible to concretely assess whether the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation is calming down or instead remains very complicated. At the current stage, neither oil nor maritime traffic through Ormuz signal true geopolitical relaxation. At minimum, we should see oil prices drop back below the $95 threshold and ideally even trend back towards $80. As for maritime traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, it was 50 ships per day before Saturday, February 28th. Currently, this number ranges between zero and five. It is necessary to see at least the resumption of the uptrend in this maritime traffic indicator to confidently return to buying risky assets on the stock market. If maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it is the most concrete signal of entering a geopolitical relaxation phase. Trade oil 24/7 with eToro Advertisement – 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You will never lose more than the amount invested in each position Note: Some content or links in this article may be advertising or affiliate. Investment in digital assets carries a risk of total or partial loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Only invest what you are willing to lose. Author: Vincent Ganne Vincent Ganne is a recognized expert in technical analysis with 18 years of experience. He frequently appears on BFM Business and produces exclusive analysis for Cryptoast Research. With his extensive experience, Vincent offers a comprehensive approach to financial markets, taking into account macroeconomic events and using various aspects of technical analysis to predict trends in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the medium to long term. He also served as Senior Market Analyst & Business Development Manager for 3 years at TradingView, enhancing his in-depth knowledge of financial markets.
