In a presentation of the economic report in Washington on April 14, 2026, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the chief economist of the IMF, warned on Tuesday that few countries would emerge economically unscathed from the war in the Middle East. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates slower global growth and higher inflation this year due to the conflict triggered by Israeli-American bombings in Iran on February 28.
Before the war, the IMF was preparing to raise its growth forecasts, but they have now been revised downward due to the conflict. The global growth rate is expected to be limited to 3.1%, compared to the previous projection of 3.3%. In the worst-case scenario of a prolonging war, the IMF forecasts a growth rate of 2% globally.
Despite the significant energy shock, the impact on the economy is expected to be less severe than during the oil crisis of the 1970s, mainly because the global economy is less dependent on oil now. The United States is expected to be among the least affected economically by the conflict, with a projected growth rate of 2.3% in 2026.
The IMF has also raised its inflation forecasts to an average of 4.4% globally, which is 0.6 points higher than the previous projection in January.
In terms of growth impact and price increases, the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region are the most affected by the war, with growth rates halved. Saudi Arabia, the leading economy in the region, has seen its growth revised down to 3.1% for this year.
On the other hand, the impact on major emerging countries is expected to be minimal or nonexistent. China’s growth is only projected to decrease by 0.1 point to 4.4%, while India’s growth is revised upwards by 0.1 point to 6.5%, and Brazil’s by 0.3 points to 1.9%. Russia is also expected to benefit, with a growth rate of 1.1% this year compared to 0.8% in the previous estimate.
Among advanced economies, the United States, Japan, and Canada appear to be more resilient than Europe. The UK is the most affected among advanced economies, with a revision of 0.5 points compared to the January estimation and an expected growth rate of 0.8%. The eurozone’s growth is revised downward by 0.2 points to 1.1%, with varying impacts across different countries. France is less affected than Italy and Germany, with a 0.1-point decline in growth forecasts to 0.9%.
