President Donald Trump has always considered himself first and foremost an outstanding negotiator, but he seems to have reached a deadlock with Iran, as his tough talk, threats, and even military actions have failed to move Tehran from its long-standing positions.
With the shifting goals of the Trump administration, it is difficult to assess the progress of American efforts. Mr. Trump and his top advisors have insisted that the United States had already won the war and that the Islamic Republic was ready to reach an agreement following an intensification of American threats during the fragile ceasefire.
But Mr. Trump has once again backtracked, stating on Monday that he had suspended plans for an imminent resumption of attacks at the request of the Gulf Arab states, as “serious negotiations are underway and, according to them, as great leaders and allies, an agreement will be reached that will be entirely acceptable for the United States of America, as well as for all countries in the Middle East.”
Although he said he had called off planned strikes for Tuesday, Mr. Trump continued to boast, claiming to have told military leaders to be ready to launch a total and large-scale attack against Iran, at any time, in case an acceptable agreement was not reached. President Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran, only to back down.
Despite growing internal unrest, a struggling economy, and the deaths of many leaders, there is no sign that Iran is willing to meet Donald Trump’s demands. In fact, Iran has remained steadfast in its positions, preventing the realization of Mr. Trump’s main objectives: Iran has still not agreed to abandon its nuclear program or the development of its ballistic missiles, nor has it stopped supporting its allies in the region, including those in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
On Monday, the White House defended the president’s approach, stating that “Mr. Trump always prioritizes peace and diplomacy,” but he will only accept an agreement that puts America first. “President Trump holds all the cards and keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” said spokesperson Olivia Wales in a statement to the Associated Press.
The leverage of the Strait of Hormuz
Notably, Iran still maintains significant control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route for global oil supplies, while the US military has imposed its own blockade on Iranian ports. The sharp fluctuations in the global energy market that followed have driven up gasoline prices, penalizing American consumers and creating potential problems for Donald Trump’s Republican Party as the midterm elections approach in November.
Mr. Trump’s strategy of increasing pressure – both economic and military – to bend foreign governments to his will does not seem to work in Iran as it did in Venezuela, Cuba, and other places. Oil blockades brought these two countries to their knees, and the Trump administration quickly ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, but it does not have as effective a leverage as Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
As the war with Iran drives up costs for Americans, Mr. Trump’s popularity in terms of the economy has plummeted, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted last month, with Republicans themselves losing trust in his leadership.
Despite all of Donald Trump’s rhetoric, Iran has not been willing to accept restrictions on its policies beyond what it had agreed to during negotiations on the nuclear deal with world powers under the Obama administration. Mr. Trump has called this deal the “worst ever negotiated” by the United States and withdrew from it during his first term in 2018.
Since a fragile ceasefire came into effect last month, Mr. Trump has criticized the slow pace of negotiations towards a permanent agreement.
“For Iran, time is running out, and they’d better hurry, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump said on social media, Sunday, shortly after a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Iranian response was not far off: “Our armed forces have their finger on the trigger, while diplomacy continues,” said Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, on state television.
The conflict at a “standstill”
Ali Vaez, director for Iran at the International Crisis Group, who has observed years of fruitless diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, emphasized that these longtime adversaries do not see themselves as defeated by the conflict.
“Since the ceasefire came into effect, Washington and Tehran seem to assume that time is on their side: each believes that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing costs for the other side, while giving them breathing space to prepare for a possible resumption of hostilities,” Vaez stated.
Despite the impact of the American economic pressure campaign, Iranian officials have not reached the threshold of tolerance “to accept what they perceive as capitulatory demands,” he added.
David Schenker, former deputy assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in the first Trump administration and currently at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described the current situation as an “impasse.”
He indicated that Mr. Trump likely had “reluctances” about the idea of returning to a total military conflict, particularly due to the fears of Gulf Arab countries facing Iranian retaliation and the volatility of energy markets, with their political implications in the United States.
Rich Goldberg, a former official at the National Security Council during both of Mr. Trump’s terms, now working for the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasized that Mr. Trump was still acting from a position of strength, including concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldberg, who is particularly interested in American energy dominance, stated that while the reopening of the strait would alleviate the “pain at the pump” felt by many Americans, it was not crucial.
“The short-term pain at the pump diverts people’s attention from the United States’ overall energy dominance,” he argued. “It’s not a permanent crisis.”
Matthew Lee and Farnoush Amiri, The Associated Press.
