The ongoing food crisis threatening the planet has taken on a tragic dimension. The United Nations is sounding the alarm: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is casting a shadow of famine over an additional 45 million people worldwide. This warning, issued by Jorge Moreira da Silva, head of the UN working group formed at the end of March, reveals the extent of the impact that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East can have on the global food balance.
From Nairobi, UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a solemn warning: “Any resumption of fighting would have terrible consequences.” Speaking on the sidelines of the Africa Forward summit, he debunked the notion that the Middle East emergency constitutes a “remote crisis,” emphasizing that around 13% of African imports rely on this critical maritime artery.
Ormuz, vital chokepoint for global agriculture
The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometer maritime strip linking the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world, is a crucial link in the global food chain. One-third of all fertilizers transported by sea typically pass through this strategic corridor. This massive dependence explains why its current closure is shaking the foundations of global agricultural markets.
Chemical fertilizers – urea, ammonia, sulfur – form the backbone of modern agriculture. According to Our World in Data, synthetic nitrogen fertilizers from the Haber-Bosch process sustain approximately 48% of the current global population. Without these crucial inputs, traditional agriculture can only feed two billion people.
The FAO report confirms this vital dependency: a disruption in fertilizer supplies will jeopardize agricultural yields until 2027. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization anticipates that some crop yields will plummet by half as early as this summer.
Unprecedented price escalation according to the UN
UN data reveals the severity of this emerging food crisis. The price of urea, one of the most commonly used nitrogen fertilizers globally, has surged by over 35% in just one month. This spike comes at the heart of the planting season, instantly amplifying the impact on agricultural production costs.
António Guterres emphasized that “this is the only way to bring energy and fertilizer prices back to pre-war levels.” This statement underscores the intricate interplay between energy and agricultural markets, both dependent on transit through Ormuz.
Inflation is not limited to fertilizers alone. International Business Times analysis indicates that insurance companies now refuse to cover ships navigating the strait, effectively paralyzing shipments. This situation triggers a vicious cycle where supply scarcity fuels price surges.
UN’s red alert in the face of a time-sensitive emergency
Jorge Moreira da Silva made a stark observation: “When the crisis erupted, we knew that a few countries would be affected, notably in Africa and Southeast Asia. Today, the situation is far more drastic, as the entire fertilizer market falters.”
The UN has marked May 15 as a fateful deadline. Beyond this cutoff date, the unavoidable shipping delays would make the consequences for 2026 harvests catastrophic. This sharply narrowed temporal window is explained by the immutability of agricultural calendars – seeding begins in June in the Sahel countries, the Horn of Africa crops require fertilizers starting early June, and agricultural intervention windows allow no postponement.
The UN official noted that “we would need an average of five ships per day” to transport vital fertilizers. “It’s a simple logistical mechanism. It can be implemented in seven days. What is lacking is the political will,” he lamented. This situation, as highlighted by La Tribune in its analysis of the Ormuz blockade, poses a major humanitarian crisis risk to 45 million people.
Geopolitical risks and humanitarian consequences
Geopolitical scrutiny reveals alarming systemic vulnerabilities. Gulf Cooperation Council countries, despite being major fertilizer exporters, import 80 to 90% of their own food, according to expert estimates. This paradox underscores the fragility of global supply chains.
The announced food crisis would particularly affect sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya, while relatively spared due to the completion of its planting season, remains concerned about neighboring nations’ fertilizer supply. António Guterres warned: “Without fertilizers, we risk facing a serious food security problem next year.”
The repercussions transcend mere food issues. An emergency humanitarian aid operation would require billions of dollars, as estimated by the UN. This calculation only covers immediate needs, without considering the essential long-term subsidy programs required to stabilize markets. This challenge echoes that of the inflation in Europe and the general rise in prices.
Worsening climate outlook
Scientists warn of an exacerbating factor: the planet may face an exceptionally intense El Niño phenomenon this year. This climatic anomaly will bring extreme heat and droughts, further diminishing agricultural yields already threatened by fertilizer shortages. This convergence of factors – geopolitical blockade, agricultural input scarcity, and unfavorable climate conditions – forms an explosive mix for global food security.
The international community is facing a critical time dilemma. As Jorge Moreira da Silva highlighted on Franceinfo: “If we do not quickly address the root of the crisis, we will have to deal with the consequences through humanitarian aid.” The urgency no longer allows for diplomatic delays in the face of this global-scale food crisis. This situation resonates with global environmental challenges, akin to those raised regarding the protection of endangered species, where collective action is crucial.
