Can we talk about a historical visit by the American president ?
A visit to China would in itself be very important. But it is indeed a historic trip, as it comes at a time when America has never been so isolated on the international stage, while China has never embodied such a pole of stability.
For the first time in centuries, a leader from the Western world is visiting another leader from a position of weakness. This is a major geopolitical upheaval, a moment that signifies the transition from one world to another. This is the first visit by an American president to meet what could be the new “emperor of the world,” Xi Jinping.
Is this isolation and American decline essentially due to the actions of the Trump administration, or can it be foreseen in light of the increasingly important role that China plays in the world ?
When Donald Trump returns to power for his second term, he surrounds himself with ideologues who aim to dismantle the international system established since 1945. They have succeeded in isolating the United States like never before: by cutting off many aids to Africa, thus leaving room for China and Russia; by attempting to forcibly annex a NATO member, a historic first and a blow to Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance; and by pushing Europeans to turn to other partners.
This is both a diplomatic and ideological isolation. The goal of this administration is to return to a system of bilateral relations, where multilateral organizations are marginalized and alliances become purely circumstantial. By destabilizing the old order, the United States has allowed China to emerge as the new force of stability.
The decline of the United States on the international stage was certainly foreseeable, but Donald Trump has significantly accelerated the process.
Seventeen American business leaders are part of the trip. Trump is also traveling for businessÂ
Indeed, a large part of this visit is dedicated to economic issues. The Trump administration hopes to obtain concrete benefits, conclude agreements with China, stabilize the competition between Washington and Beijing, establish reciprocal mechanisms, and work for the American economy’s best interests.
Trump is not approaching this aggressively. On the contrary, he will adopt a conciliatory, almost pleading posture. The current relationship is unbalanced in favor of China. Economically, it is now the United States that needs China more than the other way around.
How do Americans perceive this trip ?
The domestic situation is so difficult that this state visit seems like just another trip to the American public.
However, observers are closely watching this visit. Some are concerned about the concessions Donald Trump could make to Beijing, for example regarding Taiwan.
What are the American red lines on the Taiwan issue ?
If Taiwan is attacked, Washington will not intervene militarily. We must see things as they are: the United States did not directly intervene in Ukraine, they did not send soldiers to the ground in Iran, and there is no indication that they would be willing to let American soldiers die for Taiwan.
Washington would eventually remind that Taiwan is not recognized as an independent state by the UN or the European Union. In international law, Beijing considers this issue to be an internal matter.
Chinese intervention in Taiwan will happen one day; the only unknown is the date. The United States will protest, but ultimately will adapt to the reality on the ground.
For Trump, is it also about saving face before the November midterms ?
If Donald Trump returns from China with numerous economic agreements and manages to highlight a peaceful relationship with Beijing, it could improve a currently very degraded image.
The November elections will not be won thanks to this visit alone. What could truly change the political dynamics would be an honorable resolution of the Iranian conflict and progress on other international issues, including Cuba. But considering today’s polls, the real question is whether the Republicans will suffer a debacle in Congress, or just a limited defeat.
