Can we talk about a historic visit by the American president?
A visit to China would in itself be very significant. But this is indeed a historic trip, as it comes at a time when America has never been so isolated on the international stage, while China has never embodied stability to this extent.
For the first time in centuries, a leader from the Western world is visiting another leader from a position of weakness. This is a major geopolitical upheaval, a moment that signals the transition from one world to another. This is the first visit by an American president to meet what could be the new “emperor of the world,” Xi Jinping.
Is this isolation and the American decline primarily due to the actions of the Trump administration, or is it foreseeable considering the increasingly important role China plays in the world stage?
When Donald Trump returned to power for his second term, he surrounded himself with ideologues who aimed to dismantle the international system established since 1945. They managed to isolate the United States like never before: by cutting off aid to Africa, thus giving China and Russia more room to maneuver; by threatening to annex a NATO member by force, a historic first that undermines Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance; and by pushing Europeans to seek other partners.
This is both a diplomatic and ideological isolation. The goal of this administration is to return to a system of bilateral relations, where multilateral organizations are marginalized and alliances become purely circumstantial. By destabilizing the old order, the United States has allowed China to emerge as a new force of stability.
The decline of the United States on the international stage was indeed foreseeable, but Donald Trump significantly accelerated the process.
Seventeen American business leaders are part of the trip. Trump is also traveling for business purposes…
A large part of this visit is indeed focused on economic issues. The Trump administration hopes to secure concrete benefits, strike deals with China, stabilize the competition between Washington and Beijing, find reciprocal mechanisms, and work for the American economy
Trump is not going with aggression. On the contrary, he will adopt a conciliatory posture, almost as a supplicant. The relationship is currently skewed in favor of China. Economically speaking, the United States now needs China more than the other way around.
How do Americans perceive this trip?
The domestic situation is so difficult that this state visit seems like just another trip to the American public.
However, observers are closely following this visit. Some are concerned about the concessions Donald Trump may make to Beijing, such as regarding Taiwan.
What are the American red lines on the Taiwan issue?
If Taiwan is attacked, Washington will not intervene militarily. Let’s see things as they are: the United States did not directly intervene in Ukraine, they did not send troops to Iran, and there is no indication they would be willing to risk American soldiers for Taiwan.
Washington would point out that Taiwan is not recognized as an independent state by the UN or the European Union. In international law, Beijing considers this issue as an internal matter.
Chinese intervention in Taiwan will happen someday; the only unknown is the date. The United States will protest but eventually adapt to the reality on the ground.
For Trump, is saving face before the November midterms also at stake?
If Donald Trump returns from China with numerous economic agreements and manages to highlight a peaceful relationship with Beijing, it could improve a currently very tarnished image.
The November elections will not be won solely thanks to this visit. What could truly change the political dynamic would be an honorable exit from the Iranian conflict and progress on other international issues, notably Cuba. But based on today’s polls, the real question is whether the Republicans will suffer a debacle in Congress, or just a limited defeat.
