New leap in inflation in the United States, up 3.8% year-on

Rising prices are putting pressure on Donald Trump and the Republican Party as the midterm elections approach in November.

Inflation is surging again in the United States: in April, it reached its highest level in over three years, according to data released on Tuesday. Reflecting the surge in prices at the pump and a rise in food costs, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.8% in April, marking its highest annual pace since May 2023.

This new development is putting pressure on the Donald Trump administration as the midterm elections approach in November. During the 2024 election campaign, Donald Trump had promised to lower prices and create a new “golden age” for Americans. He told the press on Tuesday that this high inflation is only “short-term” and will significantly decrease once the war with Iran is over.

The executive branch has been insisting for weeks that the disruptions associated with the war it sparked in the Middle East are temporary. They describe them as the price to pay to prevent Iran from ever acquiring nuclear weapons. In the data released on Tuesday, gas prices saw a significant increase of 28.4% over the past year. Price hikes are widespread throughout the economy, from rent to airplane tickets. After a slowdown in March, food prices rebounded in April (+2.9% annually, +0.7% monthly).

Opposition Blames Trump

“For the first time in three years, inflation is outpacing wage growth. This is a tough blow for middle and working-class households,” noted economist Heather Long from Navy Federal Credit Union. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren remarked that “Donald Trump had promised to lower prices ‘from day one’ (of his term in January 2025, Ed.). Instead, he just keeps raising them.”

She sees the current inflation as a direct result of the President’s personal decisions, imposing tariffs on imports and engaging in a conflict with Iran on February 28 alongside Israel. The effects of the Middle East war on gas prices continued to be felt in May.

A gallon of regular gasoline currently costs an average of $4.50, up from about $3 before the conflict started, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA) data. Diesel, which powers trucks and tractors, is nearing the record set in June 2022 at $5.82, a few months after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Economist Diane Swonk from KPMG emphasized that “the increase in gas prices is adding to other energy costs predating the Iran war.” She specifically mentioned the unpopular rise in electricity prices (+6.1%), attributed to high demand from data centers, “a major issue for the November elections.”