SMEs: trust declines in the face of geopolitical shock

The deterioration is settling in. The 155th Grant Thornton barometer of SME-ETI confidence, published in mid-April, confirms a sustainable shift in the economic climate. Conducted by OpinionWay with 220 executives, the study highlights a marked drop in optimism, in a context of international tension.

“March warned us. April confirms: ETI and SME leaders are no longer facing a cyclical shock, but a deep restructuring of global economic balances. Caution has settled in strategies, employment is lagging, decisions need to be made. It is precisely in these moments that quality support makes the difference, the one that helps to decide, not just to wait“, declared Adam Nicol, president of Grant Thornton.

Low confidence in the French and global economy

The signal is clear from the study: only 22% of executives declare themselves optimistic about the evolution of the French economy, a historically low level since the end of the health crisis, compared to 66% a year earlier. All sectors are affected, with a majority of concerned actors in industry, commerce, and services.

Internationally, the situation is even more degraded. Confidence drops to 18%, an unprecedented low since 2020. The tensions in the Middle East, amplify the effects of the oil shock and disrupt global supply chains.

Activity: a general decline

The business activity outlook is also declining. This month, 66% of executives are confident about their own company, a decrease of 10 points in two months. The indicator drops below 70%, breaking the positive trend seen in 2025. All sectors are affected: services decline to 75%, commerce to 65%, and industry to 61%. A uniform decline that reflects widespread concern.

Previously resilient, the employment dynamics show a clear slowdown. Only 11% of executives plan to increase their workforce, while 10% are considering reducing it. The employment balance drops by 1 point, signaling a fragile situation.

Growth and investments under pressure

Growth prospects are contracting significantly: 39% of executives anticipate growth, compared to 55% in February. Conversely, stagnation becomes the dominant scenario for 50% of them.

Strategic decisions are changing. The share of companies stating they are not concerned about certain investments is increasing, especially in R&D and international markets, reflecting a focus on immediate priorities. Furthermore, 26% of executives are considering external growth operations, with 10% certain about it.

International tensions are once again the main concern for executives: 61% place geopolitical issues at the top of their worries. Additionally, 64% believe that the conflict in the Middle East influences their perspectives.

Adaptation and refocusing strategies

Facing this context, companies are adjusting their strategies. Nearly 59% anticipate an impact on their prices, mostly increasing, due to energy costs. Supply chains are also evolving: 53% of executives are considering modifications, between diversification and supplier reduction.

Lastly, energy projects are being reevaluated. Nearly half of executives foresee adjustments, between slowing down and accelerating investments. In this uncertain climate, some issues such as skills, cybersecurity, or regulation are temporarily taking a back seat, a sign of a strategic refocusing dictated by economic urgency.