It feels like this multifaceted conflict on multiple fronts is the result of overlapping bilateral issues with diverse motivations emanating from all actors involved closely or remotely: United States, Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, China, African countries, and more.
Far from the “end of history,” we are now in an acceleration of history. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, conflicts have been on the rise. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia since February 24, 2022, the Israel-Iran opposition since October 7, 2023, wars between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the autumn of 2020 and September 2023, the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan in August 2021, not to mention civil wars in Sudan, Libya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, tensions between India and Pakistan in April-May 2025, and those at the border between Thailand and Cambodia.
Two long-lasting conflicts currently dominate the headlines: the one in Ukraine, which President Donald Trump was supposed to solve “in twenty-four hours” in January 2025 but has now entered its fifth year; and the one in the Middle East, pitting Iran and its proxies against Israel for the past two and a half years. These two wars are increasingly interconnected to the point where one could question their possible fusion or “globalization.” Are we moving towards a “Third World War” of a different kind, not a brutal, nuclear, total conflict, but a multiregional, multidimensional war led by actors acting by proxy?
The interconnection of the two conflicts is not recent
The war in Ukraine began in 2014 in Donbass, in the east of the country, with the attack of separatist groups supported by Moscow against the regular army, followed by the annexation of Crimea. Soon after, in 2015, Russia intervened militarily in the Syrian civil war to support its ally Bashar al-Assad. The Kremlin also supports General Khalifa Haftar in the Libyan civil war and establishes its presence in Sub-Saharan Africa through the Wagner Group in Africa.
The private paramilitary militia, born in Donbass in 2014 and prominently used in Syria, spreads Russia’s influence across the African continent, exchanging protection contracts for the extraction of precious materials or bribes for contraband goods, to bypass international sanctions.
In 2018, the Wagner Group moved into the Central African Republic, in 2019 to Mali and Mozambique, followed by Burkina Faso, the DRC, etc. It is a true system of extortion and terror that is established within five years and leads to the eviction of France from its sphere of influence.
In the meantime, as of 2023, the Iranians set up a drone factory in Tatarstan (Russia), with a production of 6,000 units per year. With the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the links between Ukraine and the Middle East take on a new dimension. The oil prices increase by 4% just after the attack, providing a lifeline to the Russian economy, severely affected by the conflict; Western media turns away from Ukraine, giving Moscow a propaganda war respite; finally, three days after the Hamas attack, on October 10, the Russian army launches a massive assault on the city of Avdiivka (Donetsk oblast), triggering the “Russian counteroffensive.”
This interconnection takes on a new dimension with the “second war” against Iran
The American-Israeli-Iranian conflict, launched on February 28, 2026, and limited to an “air war” for now, has quickly had regional and global repercussions. The price of oil rose from $73 before February 28 to nearly $120 in March. Iran attacks Gulf states, blocks the Strait of Hormuz, threatens the Eastern Mediterranean, and targets military bases in the Indian Ocean. As with the attacks on October 7, all of this plays into Russia’s hands.
At the beginning of 2026, all economic indicators were in the red for Vladimir Putin’s country: central bank interest rates, inflation, growth of the non-military sector. The war launched by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu has the immediate consequence of injecting strong liquidity into the Russian treasury. While ballistic missiles strike, it is the thousands of Shahed drones that cause havoc and sow panic in Arabian Peninsula capitals, the same drones used in the Ukrainian conflict.
For Ukraine, the risk is threefold:
1. Depletion of American ammunition needed by Ukraine (Patriot missiles, anti-aircraft defenses, etc.);
2. Relaxation of the Russian oil embargo by the Trump administration to contain the surge in oil prices;
3. Risk for European economies of a lasting recession if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Since 2025, the financing of the war in Ukraine has primarily been done by Europe.
In response, between March 27 and 29, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky embarks on a diplomatic tour in the Gulf where he signs defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
The consequences are significant:
1. With its unique expertise in anti-drone warfare, Ukraine positions itself as an expert in modern warfare;
2. Volodymyr Zelensky opens up a new source of defense funding for his country in exchange for transfers of military technology;
3. The Ukrainian president hopes to secure a new access point to Patriot-type anti-aircraft defense systems;
4. By positioning itself as a credible actor in the Middle East, Kiev aims to counteract Russian influence (whose Geran-2 drones, an improved version of Iranian Shahed drones, thanks to their resistance to jamming or stealthiness, serve to destroy the economy of their so-called “partners”) and could even outmaneuver Israel on its own turf.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict is now playing out on three continents
On the European front, in addition to Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, 12,000 North Korean soldiers have come to support the Kremlin, with 11,000 stationed in the Kursk region in western Russia. Similarly, African and South Asian soldiers (from thirty-four countries) have joined the fighting. On the Middle Eastern front, Volodymyr Zelensky has sent 200 Ukrainian drone operators to the region to assist Gulf monarchies against the Iranian Shahed onslaught.
In Africa, Ukrainians have been on the ground for two years. In addition to a diplomatic offensive aiming to challenge Moscow’s influence with several compliant regimes, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) has had several successes against Russia. In July 2024, they helped Tuareg rebel forces decimate Wagner mercenaries in northern Mali.
It would be “logical” if the French General Directorate for External Security (DGSE), familiar with Mali, acted as an intermediary between the Tuareg leaders responsible for the attack and HUR, starting from scratch in the Sahel. The DGSE is well-acquainted with the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA, the alliance of rebel groups) and still has rescue channels available. Therefore, it is possible that French intelligence facilitated contact between the Ukrainians and the Tuaregs to retaliate against Wagner Group, responsible for their eviction from Mali.
Another example: at the beginning of March 2026, a surface naval drone severely damaged the liquefied natural gas ship Arctic Metagas off the coast of Libya. The unmanned Russian vessel drifted between Italy and Malta. The Kremlin accused Ukraine and British intelligence of being behind the operation. According to an investigation by RFI, Kiev had sent 200 Ukrainian soldiers to Libya. They were divided between the Air Force academy in Misrata (northern part of the country), an aerial and naval drone base in Zaouara (west of Tripoli), where the attack on one of the ships in the Russian ghost fleet in the Mediterranean was launched, and they also had a post near the capital Tripoli airport.
This new multiregional war is nothing like a 20th-century world war
We are not facing a proxy war between a Western bloc (United States, Europe, Israel, South Korea, Canada, Australia) and a bloc dominated by China (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea). The current US administration no longer considers Europeans as reliable allies.
Furthermore, the positions of the parties change according to the geography of the conflicts. The United States supports Israel, not the Europeans who advocate de-escalation; Donald Trump, supported by many Republicans, wants to withdraw from NATO; Ukraine remains the essential topic for Europeans, whose support increased by 67% in 2025 while that of the United States plummeted by 99%; the White House seeks normalization of relations with Russia; Europeans prepare for a possible war; the Trump administration seeks regime change in Western Europe; it wants to hinder China’s march towards global domination without entering into war (rare earths, oil, artificial intelligence, etc.).
Russians and Chinese support the Iranian regime in targeting American and Gulf assets. And Donald Trump does not protest, allowing a Russian tanker to pass to Cuba. However, he criticizes the Europeans daily, blaming them for not providing military aid in a war for which they were never consulted and from which they will pay a much higher energy shock than the United States.
It seems as if this war on multiple fronts is the result of the superimposition of various bilateral issues with diverse motivations. Europeans want to help Ukraine to contain Russia. Ukraine and Russia are now engaged in a war on three continents. Israel wants the neutralization of Iran, while Iran seeks the destruction of Israel. Donald Trump’s United States wants to vassalize Europe and avoid a conflict with Russia, seen as a potential ally in a “Great Game” against China. They also seek to acquire territories in the “Western Hemisphere,” creating a risk of collision with Europe in case of NATO withdrawal. Freed from its obligations, Donald Trump could then consider a show of force in Greenland (unlikely but not impossible).
We are now in a multiregional war, significantly different from a 20th-century world war. This war is hybrid, informational, clandestine, of high and low intensity, involving multiple proxy actors and characterized by shifting alliances where each party focuses on its immediate and strategic interests.
All conditions are in place for conflict hotspots to multiply (China-Taiwan, Korean Peninsula, etc.) and for wars to persist. Everywhere, defense budgets are increasing rapidly. Armies are learning from the regional “laboratories” that are conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Iran. We are witnessing the greatest acceleration in technological progress (AI, big data, neural networks, robotics) and one of the fastest transformations in the conduct of warfare in history. After forty years of a bipolar world order (the Cold War) and thirty years of American hyperpower, we have now entered a multipolar global disorder.
/2025/12/24/zidane-694bbd63de5c4791782488.jpg "2026 World Cup: Jaw fracture for Algerias goalkeeper Luca Zidane, a month and a half before the competition")
