While an agreement regarding the war in Iran still seems far off, political analyst and specialist in international relations Bertrand Badie decrypts for La Depeche what diplomacy according to Donald Trump is all about. Between an obsession with pleasing his base, his vision of power dynamics, and his unpredictability, the American president embodies a deep rupture with traditional diplomatic practices, the effects of which could significantly weaken the United States’ position on the international stage.
La Depeche du Midi: How does Donald Trump’s diplomacy differ from that of his predecessors?
Bertrand Badie: The first difference is that it is a diplomacy strongly oriented towards domestic politics. All diplomacies are linked to the image that the head of state wants to convey to his people, but in this man’s case, it is particularly remarkable. He is a true populist leader, who believes that the essence of his work on the international stage consists of responding to a social demand for power, demonstrating the exceptional capacity of the United States, and their ability to govern the world.
The second important difference is that beyond this populism, Donald Trump is truly a follower of the traditional concept of power dynamics. He believes that the international game is dominated by this power dynamic. This gives him excessive confidence, for example in the operation he is conducting against Iran, with a very classic vision where a superpower logically should prevail against a weaker state like Iran. But he does not understand that this old power dynamic no longer works today in a simple arithmetic manner, because there are social, cultural, and economic parameters linked to globalization that blur this.
Have his bullying, insults, and threats of invasion against his allies isolated the United States in this conflict with Iran?
This isolation is due to several factors. Firstly, allies were not informed of American or Israeli intentions in Iran, which upset many people. Then, there was extremely violent language, harsh words towards several leaders, such as Emmanuel Macron or the Saudi Crown Prince, which worsened tensions. Finally, everyone is aware of the potential economic consequences of this war in a globalized economy, which is causing strong concerns, whether in Europe, Asia, or in Southern countries.
Is Trump’s negotiating style a handicap for finding a peace agreement?
Yes, completely. Negotiation is partly undermined by his style. Firstly, he is too unpredictable and talks too much. During negotiations, one should not speak like this, because it is more rational to let the other party speak. Then, there is his rhetoric: one never really knows what to believe in what he says, making his position difficult to follow. And then there is this showy diplomacy. He wants to immediately show his public opinion that he is winning, but it becomes very clumsy in his negotiation.
Will the image of the United States be deeply damaged in the long term after the end of his four-year presidency?
The United States will have a lot of trouble recovering. We are already seeing a world in recomposition, with a global South gaining power and a China imposing itself more and more discreetly but effectively. Many states that trusted the United States will have lasting doubts. And this time, unlike in Donald Trump’s first term, the consequences seem deeper, as it is the credibility of the United States itself that is being called into question, and they will have much more difficulty in bouncing back.
