In denial or cold-blooded? Despite the war, exporting companies do not expect a decrease in their activity, quite the opposite. On April 7th, during an online press conference, Allianz Trade, a specialist in trade credit insurance, presented the results of its “Allianz Trade Global Survey,” conducted with 6,000 exporting companies in a dozen countries worldwide. Surveyed after the start of the conflict, “75% of exporting companies expect an increase in their export turnover. We do not see the confidence shock observed in 2025, after the ‘Liberation day’, where forecasts collapsed,” notes Ano Kuhanathan, head of sector research at Allianz Trade. He offers three “explanations” for this optimism that may seem surprising. The first: “companies have long been accustomed to living through shock after shock, they have acquired resilience.” The second: timing, as the survey was conducted at the beginning of the conflict (which could then be considered short). The third explanation: “the denial of what the shock represents.”
However, several signals recorded in the study suggest increasing concern. The number of exporters expecting to significantly reduce their investments has increased sharply since February 28th, the date of the first American and Israeli strikes on Iran. Concerns about payment delays have also increased: 43% of companies expect a further deterioration in conditions, 5 points higher than before the conflict. The fear of defaults has also increased. In fact, according to Allianz Trade, the proportion of companies paid within 30 days has dropped from 10% to 7% since the start of the conflict. Today, “geopolitical risk has become the main concern of exporters. 65% of them place it at the top of their risks,” points out Ano Kuhanathan.
The growing concern of exporters only adds to that prioritized by exporters in 2025: supply chains. International trade was then in shock due to the trade war opened by Donald Trump on April 2nd, the date of the ‘Liberation day’. “The context of the trade war remains unchanged and continues to worry exporters,” continues Ano Kuhanathan. In fact, the American president managed to bypass the US Supreme Court decision which, on February 20th, 2026, deemed the Trump tariffs illegal. As a result, this year, 43% of exporting companies anticipate a negative impact of the trade war on their activity. Many of them intend to focus on their domestic markets and those deemed stable. They have adapted: 80% of companies have adjusted their logistics routes since the ‘Liberation day,’ according to the study. Several strategies have been implemented: building up precautionary stocks, diversifying markets, suppliers, and routes.
However, “the resilience of exporters comes at a cost,” points out Ano Kuhanathan. The cost of the complexity of value chains is now estimated at nearly $5 billion, twice as much as in 2017. And it could increase further, as the conflict in the Middle East encourages exporting companies to redouble their efforts in this regard. Since February 28th, for example, half of them have been looking for alternative routes or carriers.
The Middle East war has not interrupted other dynamics at work in international trade, according to the study. In particular, an increasing number of companies (over 70%) expect to accelerate relocations, even though constraints remain. Foremost among these are the absence of quality local suppliers (83%) and production costs (67%). More specifically, the phenomenon of “nearshoring” (seeking potential suppliers or production sites in the same area as the company) seems to be strengthening. Thus, Western Europe is the primary destination designated by companies in this same area (37%) to establish new production sites or suppliers. The score and mechanism are similar for the APAC region (China, Asia Pacific). Another sign of relocation: global investment intentions in China have dropped from 53% to 24% between 2025 and 2026.
Other dynamics contribute to reshaping global trade. The attractiveness of the American market for exporters has greatly diminished, a result of the Trump trade war. Conversely, 93% of companies state their intention to take advantage of recent free trade agreements (negotiated with Mercosur or India) to expand. The potential remains largely theoretical due to non-tariff barriers that persist, according to Allianz Trade.
Beyond these commercial dynamics, various other factors could reshuffle the competition among exporting companies. “2025 was not the year of ESG [environmental, social, and governance factors]. Engagement has decreased significantly, the consensus has fractured,” points out Ano Kuhanathan. With the significant Trump administration rollback on the environment, the risk of competition distortion grows between European companies following standards that American ones are bypassing. Also, Indian and Brazilian exporting companies are heavily investing in AI.
