We explain why Taiwan remains a hotspot in the relationship between China and the United States, as Xi Jinping reminded Donald Trump.

While conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East were expected to take center stage in the meeting between the two presidents on Thursday, Xi Jinping brought the disputed issue of Taiwan back into focus.

A bold statement. Xi Jinping warned Donald Trump about the Taiwan issue from the first moments of his visit to China on Thursday, May 14. “The Taiwan issue is the most important in Sino-American relations. If handled well, the relationship between the two countries can remain generally stable. If mishandled, the two countries will clash, even enter into conflict,” declared the Chinese president, using a word in Mandarin that does not necessarily mean military conflict.

After more conciliatory remarks about his country’s economic openness to American companies, the Chinese president reminded that Taiwan’s future remains a major point of friction between the two countries. This is despite the proliferation of other conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. Franceinfo explains why the fate of this island of 24 million inhabitants continues to fuel tensions between the two leading global powers.

China increases military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan

For several months, Beijing has been increasing military and diplomatic actions against this island located southeast of the country. China considers Taiwan as one of its provinces, which it has not been able to reunite with the rest of its territory since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, during which the Chinese government ousted by the communists had sought refuge on the island.

In its speeches, China pleads for a peaceful solution but reserves the possibility of using force to take control. This was reiterated during large-scale military maneuvers launched on December 29, simulating a blockade of Taiwanese ports. These exercises involved “destroyers, frigates, fighters, bombers, and drones,” according to the Chinese command for the region. A show of force of unprecedented scale. “The noose is tightening,” said General Meng Xiangqing on Chinese television, a professor at the National Defense University, cited by the American newspaper The New York Times.

China also exerts its diplomatic weight to isolate Taiwan from the rest of the world. In late April, the visit of the Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te to Eswatini – a small landlocked state in southern Africa and the only diplomatic ally of Taipei in Africa – was postponed. Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar had unexpectedly revoked their overflight authorizations due to “intense pressure” from Beijing, according to the Taiwanese presidency. Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is one of the 12 countries that still recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty, while China has persuaded others to sever diplomatic relations with Taipei in favor of Beijing. In mid-April, the President of Palau said that China was “very insistent” in its requests for his micro-state to abandon its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan.

China also targets arms and defense companies that work with Taiwan. On April 24, Beijing announced restrictions on seven European companies accused of “collusion” with the Taiwanese government. They have now been placed on the export control list with immediate effect, announced the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in a statement.

The US stance on the issue is contested by Beijing

Could the Chinese president rally his American counterpart to his position on Taiwan? “The diplomatic objective is for the United States to recognize that Taiwan’s independence is unthinkable,” decrypts Camille Brugier, a specialist in Chinese trade and technology policies, and founder of the consulting firm La Chiniste, to Franceinfo. So far, American policy on Taiwan has been based on military support for the island without full recognition or open support for independence desires of the island. Since 1982, one of the key principles of this strategy has been not to “consult” Beijing on arms sales to Taiwan. The island is also a trading partner for the United States, with which it signed a major trade deal in January, benefiting from its status as a global leader in semiconductor production.

However, the Chinese president wants to see this US policy evolve. Beijing regularly criticizes Washington for not honoring its diplomatic commitments by continuing arms sales to Taiwan, offering support internationally, and not clearly opposing its independence. “China’s opposition to US arms sales to the Chinese region of Taiwan is constant and unambiguous,” said Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a regular press briefing. Donald Trump had announced that he would address this issue with President Xi Jinping during his visit to Beijing.

American military support to Taiwan is fluctuating

The issue of American arms deliveries to Taiwan is central to Sino-American relations. Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has toned down military support for Taiwan, as with other allies. His frequent flip-flops make his guiding line difficult to read for Taipei. In this context, Taiwanese diplomacy expressed its desire on Tuesday to “strengthen cooperation” with the United States and “develop effective deterrent capabilities to jointly maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

In late March, the United States once again called on Taiwan to increase its defense budget. “President Trump urged his allies and partners to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP in order to share with us the financial burden of maintaining peace, declared Raymond Greene, director of the Taiwan Financial Institute, which serves as a de facto American embassy on the island, on Thursday, March 26. “Taiwan is no exception to this rule,” he said at an event at the American Chamber of Commerce.

After months of political power struggles, the Taiwanese parliament finally approved a $25 billion increase in defense spending on May 8. This amount remains well below the approximately $40 billion budget proposed by the Taiwanese government, which still fears a Chinese invasion threat. “The authorities in Beijing are currently the sole risk for regional peace and stability, emphasized the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement on the first day of Donald Trump’s visit to China.”