The six Arab Gulf countries have varying relationships with Iran, the United States, and Israel, and these differences are exposed by the war in the Middle East. The rivalry between the two major Gulf monarchies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is deepening.
Amid the diplomatic deadlock between Tehran and Washington, the bellicose threats from Donald Trump, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf monarchies find themselves in a state of uncertainty. They are observing their disputes, which are not new, intensify and their differences materialize while waiting for the situation to change.
“The differences are not new, but the conflict has heightened the divisions,” notes Jean-Paul Ghoneim, a researcher specializing in Gulf countries, contacted by BFM News.
One point of disagreement is how to address the economic and military impacts of the war that has affected all of them. On one side, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia advocate for dialogue and support Pakistan’s mediation efforts. On the other side, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, aligned with the US and Israel, take a more hawkish stance.
Historically, these different postures can be explained. The six countries united within the Gulf Cooperation Council have coexisted with Iran for centuries but with varying degrees of complexity. Kuwait leans on its diplomatic tradition and geographic location.
As tensions escalate, the differences in approaches toward handling the conflict with Iran become more apparent between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia, skeptical of Iran as a regional rival, values stability for its ambitions. On the other hand, the UAE sees the Islamic Republic as a threat to its security.
The UAE has been a prominent supporter of the American-Israeli operation in the Gulf and has faced numerous retaliatory attacks from Iran. This has strained their relations further and positioned the UAE as a strategic target for Tehran.
The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the two Gulf powerhouses competing for regional leadership, has been exacerbated by diverging views on Iran and Israel. While Saudi Arabia has taken a more reserved stance, favoring de-escalation and internal transformation, the UAE sees a proactive approach as necessary to reshape the regional order.
Recent developments, such as the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and the economic ramifications of the conflict, underscore the intensifying competition between the two countries and their impact on the entire Gulf region. Despite outward displays of unity, underlying tensions persist, evident in Tehran’s satisfaction in seeing discord among its Arab neighbors.
The implications of these rivalries extend beyond economic competition and could further strain the Gulf countries, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic challenges.
