In recent statements, the American armed forces have expressed concerns about new Russian capabilities in missile defense. In addition to missiles, the Kremlin is developing satellites capable of destroying other satellites, as well as some nuclear options.
“In space, no one can hear you fire… but the silence of vacuum does not prevent the rise of tensions,” said General Stephen Whiting, head of the United States Space Command, who recently raised concerns about suspicious movements of Russian satellites. After several tests in low Earth orbit, described as “Russian dolls” devices, Moscow is now developing potentially operational antisatellite capabilities, capable of targeting American strategic assets.
Without explicitly naming the program, the senior officer was likely referring to the Russian “Nivelir” system. After being placed in orbit, these satellites reportedly released smaller devices to carry out their own maneuvers, with one of them projecting an unidentified object at high speed during a 2020 test that US analysts interpreted as a possible projectile aimed at another satellite.
The most recent satellite suspected of belonging to the Russian Nivelir program was reportedly launched in May from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, located in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, 800 km north of Moscow. This launch coincided precisely with the orbital passage of an American spy satellite. According to US authorities, this system, tested since 2013 and observed approaching American satellites since 2019, is now operational.
“It is clear that Russia was deploying a space weapon in this area and placing it in an orbit that allows it to reach essential satellites for American national security,” General Whiting said at a conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. “If we look at the early launches of this system, the Russian system of Russian dolls, we see that these were tests.”
A “long history” of antisatellite weapons
Despite being financially less endowed than American and Chinese programs, the Russian space industry produces fewer satellites and carries out less frequent launches, but it is nevertheless developing a unique approach to antisatellite weapons. In addition to its “antisatellite satellites” capabilities, Russia also has missiles capable of hitting objects in orbit.
During the early days of the space age, due to the low precision of missiles, they had to carry a nuclear payload intended to explode near the target satellite. Subsequently, other methods were developed, such as creating debris clouds or projectiles in the target’s trajectory, or using kinetic devices capable of directly hitting satellites.
“The United States Intelligence Community assesses that Russia remains a competent space power, despite its systemic underfunding of the space industry, quality control problems, international sanctions, and export controls,” the US intelligence agencies previously stated in their annual unclassified threat assessment published earlier this year.
Nuclear capabilities in space?
However, the US military command has not only focused on the satellites and missiles of the Kremlin but also on its nuclear capabilities. The hypothesis of a Russian nuclear antisatellite weapon was at the center of the latest war simulation exercise of the American Space Command, which involved authorities, allies, and over 60 defense companies to anticipate the consequences of such a scenario.
Dubbed “Apollo Insight,” this confidential exercise, completed last month, explored a crisis scenario involving weapons of mass destruction in orbit. This was considered concerning based on information about Russia’s alleged intentions, according to General Stephen Whiting. Several experts, cited by Defense One, note that such nuclear use in space would violate the Outer Space Treaty, even though Washington deems it necessary to prepare for this “worst-case scenario.”
According to The Times, a nuclear explosion in low Earth orbit (between 480 and 1,930 km altitude) could damage or destroy up to 10,000 satellites, approximately 80% of the total in operation. Such an event would affect both military intelligence and targeting capabilities, as well as a large portion of civilian services (communications, internet, telephony, and GPS), leading the British newspaper to describe this hypothesis as a true “space Pearl Harbor.”
