The war in Iran could reshape oil flows

Since February 28, American exports of crude oil and petroleum products have surged by 17%. They now reach nearly 13 million barrels per day, according to figures from the Department of Energy, which is higher than any other country’s volume.

– American exports have been consistently increasing since 2022. – Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz contributes to accelerating this trend by removing the equivalent of 20 million barrels per day from the market. – With Gulf refineries shut down, importers particularly in Asia and Europe are turning more towards the United States.

However, American producers alone are unable to make up for the loss of oil flow that previously transited through the Persian Gulf before the war. Analyst Matt Smith from Kpler estimates that the United States theoretically can export up to a maximum of 6.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, compared to an average of 3.5 to 4.5 million barrels in recent years. Exports are expected to stabilize around 5.5 million barrels per day due to logistical constraints.

The upheaval from the war could lead new importers to sign multi-year supply contracts with American companies. The reorganization of energy flows will be determined by factors including the conflict’s progression and freight costs for tankers, which have risen by over 20% since the beginning of the year.

The route from the United States to China now costs around $16.3 million for a supertanker, comparable to the route from the Gulf before the war. Long-term increases in American exports will depend on the availability and number of ships capable of carrying cargoes to ports.

Sources: – Ben German, “Trump’s oil export surge and ceiling”, Axios, April 24, 2026. – Jamie Smyth, et al., “America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war”, Financial Times, April 25, 2026. – “Tanker Market Stabilizing After Recent Turbulence”, Hellenic Shipping News, April 27, 2026. – Christopher Charleston, “US Oil Exports to Hit 5 Million Barrels a Day Amid Global Crunch”, Bloomberg, April 9, 2026.