The joint American-Israeli action launched on February 28, 2026 plunged the United States into a strategic impasse. At this stage, the conflict benefits Russia and increasingly voices in the United States, both in the Democratic camp and within the Trumpist MAGA galaxy, denounce a war that is being waged more in the interests of Tel Aviv than of Washington.
According to the New York Times, after a series of secret meetings with the Israeli Prime Minister, Donald Trump subscribed to the idea of regime change in Iran through disorganization and decapitation of power, as well as neutralization of Tehran’s ballistic capabilities, which was considered an “achievable” objective. Benyamin Netanyahu persuaded him that Iran was not capable of “blocking the Strait of Hormuz or seriously striking American interests in the region.”
The U.S. president was convinced of the inevitable success of a major offensive, assuming that it would be a low-cost operation with a quick victory. An initially erroneous calculation. In fact, Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, which were able to saturate defense systems using low-cost drones and hypersonic ballistic missiles, while disrupting the global economy by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, thwarted these predictions.
Imminent Stalemate
This risk of strong resistance was largely perceptible, as Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine had warned Donald Trump about strikes that could turn out to be risky and draw the United States into a prolonged conflict. Intelligence assessments also outlined possible Iranian reactions, indicating that Tehran would focus on regional reprisals, targeting “American bases, Gulf allies, and critical energy chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.”
Observers agree that Iranian resilience is the result of defense doctrine developed in the 2000s, which allowed for operational continuity even after the decapitation of top regime officials, by dispersing the command structure. Iran was prepared for an attritional war, aiming to degrade the enemy’s resources faster than they could be replenished.
An Israeli War More Than an American War?
It appears that under Benyamin Netanyahu’s influence, Donald Trump has been drawn into a war without a clear objective, risking entanglement for American forces. This is not the first time the U.S. has launched into a war after being persuaded by Israeli arguments. According to numerous observers, the 2003 Iraq intervention—termed a “calamity” by strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski before the U.S. Senate Foreign Affairs Committee—was a striking example of the pro-Israel lobby’s weight in shaping U.S. foreign policy.
In their seminal work “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy,” John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt highlight the close ties with Israel as the cornerstone of U.S. policy in the Middle East, driven primarily by the “Israeli Lobby.” They initially published an article called “The Israel Lobby,” which sparked controversy and expanded their analysis in their book to counter the fervent criticism they faced.
Negative Results for Both Washington and Tel Aviv
In this new war context, Israel seems to have played a leading role in the decision to launch a major offensive against Iran. While U.S. goals were undefined, Israeli objectives appear clearer.
The prospect of war as a permanent feature of Israeli policy is proving increasingly costly for the United States, as evidenced by the early effects of the war against Iran.
Olivier Dujardin notes that Israel is engaged in a conflict on multiple fronts, facing a complex situation with significant costs, not only monetarily but also in terms of strategic advantages.
Unpopular War in the United States
Additionally, this war is starting to have domestic political costs for the United States and could eventually affect their relationship with Israel as divisions within the MAGA movement become more apparent. Several prominent figures in this movement have voiced sharp criticisms of Israel, warning of the risk of being bogged down in an endless war at the expense of U.S. interests.
As the midterm elections approach, Republicans realize that their chances of retaining the majority in the House of Representatives are dwindling due to Donald Trump’s decision to launch military operations against Iran.
Within the Democratic camp, opposition to the war is also growing. Bernie Sanders, in a piece titled “U.S. Military Aid to Israel Must Stop,” published in The Guardian, highlights the plummeting support for Israel, particularly among Democrats.
The Senate rejected two proposals by Bernie Sanders to block arms sales and bulldozer transfers to Israel. However, the war against Iran could be one of the last wars conducted by the United States at Israel’s behest.
