The joint Israeli-American action initiated on February 28th has plunged the United States into a strategic deadlock. At this stage, the conflict benefits Russia, and increasing voices in the United States, both from the Democratic camp and within the MAGA galaxy, denounce a war led more in Tel Aviv’s interest than in Washington’s.
According to the New York Times, after a series of secret meetings with the Israeli Prime Minister, Donald Trump subscribed to the idea that regime change in Iran through disorganization, decapitation of power, and neutralization of Iran’s ballistic capabilities was a near-term goal. Benjamin Netanyahu convinced him that Iran was not capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz or seriously striking American interests in the region.
The American president was persuaded of the inevitable success of a major offensive, believing it to be a low-cost operation in which he could quickly emerge victorious. However, Iran’s ability to saturate defense systems using low-cost drones and hypersonic ballistic missiles, while also affecting the global economy through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, thwarted these expectations.
An entanglement is now foreseen due to strong resistance against strikes warned by the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, leading to a potential prolonged conflict for the United States. Intelligence assessments also highlighted Iran’s likely responses, focusing on regional retaliation targeting American bases, Gulf allies, and critical energy chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
The growing discontent within the American public towards the war and its potential consequences for US-Israel relations are becoming increasingly apparent. With opposition mounting both from Democrats and within the MAGA movement, further political and economic implications are anticipated as the conflict continues.
