Between Washington and Havana, history seems to be catching up with the present. After the American operation that led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Cuban authorities now fear a possible military intervention by the United States. Tensions escalated this week with the indictment by the U.S. Department of Justice of former Cuban President Raul Castro, accused of conspiracy in connection with the deaths of three American citizens during the destruction of two planes in 1996.
A few days earlier, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez denounced a “fake news” campaign after reports claimed that Cuba had acquired around 300 military drones capable of reaching the shores of Florida. In Havana, these accusations are seen as a potential pretext for American intervention, especially since Donald Trump recently designated Cuba as the “next” country after Venezuela, even saying he would be honored to “take Cuba.”
This new episode is part of over a century of conflictual relations. Since Cuban independence, Washington has viewed the island as a major strategic issue due to its geographical proximity to the United States. Following the Spanish-American War of 1898, Cuba formally gained independence in 1902, but American influence remained massive, particularly through Guantanamo and the right to intervene in Cuban affairs.
The turning point came with the 1959 revolution and Fidel Castro’s rise to power, establishing a communist regime and aligning with the Soviet Union. The American embargo, assassination attempts against Castro, and the failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 further intensified hostility between the two countries. This confrontation peaked in October 1962 when the installation of Soviet missiles in Cuba brought the world to the brink of nuclear war, before a compromise between John F. Kennedy and Moscow.
The Obama era briefly opened a period of detente with the reestablishment of diplomatic relations in 2015 and the opening of embassies. However, this normalization remained limited. Today, amid American pressure, the Venezuelan crisis, the war against Iran, and suspicions surrounding drones, distrust prevails once again. Cuba claims to not want war while preparing to respond to an “external aggression.” The old Caribbean conflict, which had nearly plunged the world into nuclear apocalypse, is once again a major focal point of tension.
