War in the Middle East: how to explain Donald Trumps turnaround, who gives up a new attack on Iran?

After asserting, at the last moment, that he had decided to abandon the bombings on Iran on Monday, Donald Trump assured that there were “very good chances” of reaching an agreement with Tehran. This change of direction would be linked, according to him, to the request of the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Donald Trump finally announced on Monday, May 18 that he would not attack Iran on Tuesday. According to the American president, an offensive was planned as Tehran did not comply with Washington’s demands. This time, Donald Trump did not set an ultimatum. But he had stated on Sunday that there would be “nothing left” of Iran if the country did not accept the conditions set by Washington for an agreement, starting with giving up its nuclear program.

The American president had never mentioned this attack plan before Monday and a message on his platform Truth Social. Donald Trump claims that a request from several Gulf country leaders dissuaded him from carrying out this attack: the leaders of Qatar (Sheikh Tamim), Saudi Arabia (Mohammed bin Salman), and the United Arab Emirates (Mohammed bin Zayed). These three men, according to Trump, believe in an agreement “completely acceptable to the United States and all Middle Eastern countries.”

Serious discussions are said to be underway, according to Donald Trump. No details are provided, and this is obviously not the first time the White House resident has spoken in this manner. Nonetheless, he still brandishes the stick and specifies that he has asked Pete Hegseth, the head of the Pentagon, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, to be ready to attack if negotiations fail.

Even though there is no evidence of this turnaround, as Donald Trump is the only one asserting that an attack was planned, leaks in recent days indicated the president’s patience was indeed running out and he seemed ready to strike. He was supposed to meet his restricted security council on Tuesday to discuss options. Iran had sent a response on Sunday to the recently proposed text, still unsatisfactory according to the White House.

The observation is clear: Donald Trump has decided not to strike, once again, this would be the sixth time. Even if the Gulf countries certainly played a role, it is likely that other factors came into play. This war is unpopular. According to the most recent poll, 64% of Americans believe this conflict was a bad decision. Waking up the weapons has a cost: oil prices remain unstable.

Iran has resources. It is a proven regime that has suffered heavy military losses, but it is not the land of terror described by the Donald Trump administration. Iran has retained missiles, launchers, still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and resists the blockade imposed by the United States. Donald Trump might eventually resolve to bomb Iran, but a diplomatic solution remains the best option if he can give it a semblance of victory.

Since the ceasefire came into effect on April 8 after nearly 40 days of strikes, negotiations are ongoing to try to reach an agreement, but the positions of both parties remain very far apart, especially on the nuclear aspect. Only one session of discussions between American and Iranian representatives took place on April 11 in Islamabad, ending in failure. Iran reiterated its demands, particularly calling for the freezing of Iranian assets abroad and the lifting of international sanctions choking its economy.