Researchers in the United States have discovered that while climatic anomalies do not directly trigger wars, they can exacerbate existing economic, political, or social challenges in certain regions of the world.
Major climate oscillations, such as El Niño or the Indian Ocean dipole, could play a much larger role in armed conflicts than previously thought. This was revealed in a study conducted by researchers at Rice University (United States) and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Over several years, this team of eight scientists collected unprecedented data on over 500 civil conflicts and wars that occurred between 1950 and 2023 to understand if certain climatic phenomena increased the risks of violence and escalation. “We wanted to understand if the risk of armed conflict is linked to these climate variations and if the risk of local conflict is proportional to the influence of these variations on the local climate,” explained Tyler Bagwell, one of the authors. With this approach, he and his colleagues aimed to identify regions of the world where weather disturbances make societies more fragile and vulnerable to political or social tensions.
Their research focused on two climatic phenomena. The first is El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has implications beyond the South Pacific, and the second is the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), less publicized but very influential in East Africa and Southeast Asia. “The extreme phases of ENSO and IOD are each associated with distinct local climate impacts, often opposite,” noted Tyler Bagwell. While some regions become drier, others receive more rainfall. “By exploiting these differential impacts, we then established statistical correlations between the location and date of armed conflicts, the El Niño or La Niña phase of ENSO, and the dry or wet impacts experienced by the societies involved,” the scientist continued. The study notably shows that violence increases in regions affected by drought during El Niño. “The global risk of armed conflict is higher during El Niño than during La Niña,” observed the scientists. Conversely, in regions where the “child of the climate” brings rain, the authors found “no credible link” to an increase in conflicts. This conclusion reinforces the idea that water scarcity, agricultural losses, and pressure on food resources can become aggravating factors in economically or politically vulnerable countries.
Unlike ENSO, where only one phase (El Niño) seems to be associated with an increased risk, both phases of the Indian Ocean dipole appear to be associated with the emergence of conflicts, particularly in the Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia. “It’s a very different pattern. The Indian Ocean dipole operates on shorter time scales and can evolve rapidly, creating abrupt climate variations that can destabilize vulnerable regions,” summarized Professor Sylvia Dee, who considers it a “threat multiplier.” While the authors emphasize that climate does not directly cause wars, they believe that certain climatic patterns do indeed modify the probabilities of their occurrence. Since El Niño or the Indian Ocean dipole can be predicted several months in advance, the researchers hope that their study will help improve warning systems and humanitarian preparedness in the world’s most vulnerable areas.
