An airplane from the Hong Kong company Cathay Pacific just after its crash at Hong Kong International Airport on March 11, 2026 (AFP / Peter PARKS).
From Thailand shunned by Europeans to Spain boosted by an increase in travelers, the war in the Middle East has started to impact vacation destinations for this summer, benefiting some destinations.
The start of the conflict at the end of February drastically reduced tourist flows in the Middle East. In Jordan these days, the few tourists present can visit the ancient city of Petra almost alone.
The impact is being felt farther away. On the island of Djerba in Tunisia, where the season is starting, the sector has been slowing down for a few weeks. Before the outbreak of war, “for example, we used to receive 100 new reservations per day, now it’s only 50,” explains Anane Kamoun, director of the Royal Garden Palace hotel, located in the northeast of the island.
Disruptions in airport hubs located in the Gulf countries and the rise in jet fuel prices are having a broader impact, also affecting Southeast Asia.
In a country like Thailand, the figures are revealing. According to its Ministry of Tourism, the country recorded a significant decline in arrivals from European countries in April, with 29% fewer German visitors and 44% fewer Italians.
The world’s number one tourism operator, the German operator TUI, also lowered its profitability forecast for the 2025/26 fiscal year in April, citing the war in Iran which generates “increased caution” among clients.
But caution does not mean absence. According to Aarin Chiekrie, an analyst for Hargreaves Lansdown, “it doesn’t seem like holidaymakers are completely giving up on their vacation plans.” “Recent data suggests they’re simply rescheduling later,” he continues.
According to estimates from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), which represents major global tourism operators and monitors the economic health of the sector, it will even experience a growth of 3.2% globally in 2026, exceeding the overall global economic growth estimated at 2.4%.
– “Safer” Destinations –
Europe could particularly benefit. The WTTC predicts that international visitor spending in the region will increase by 7.1% in 2026, “as travelers increasingly favor destinations close to home in a context of geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions in other regions.”
At the forefront in terms of expected growth is Italy followed by Spain, according to the WTTC. For Rafael Pampillon Olmedo, professor of economics at IE Business School in Spain, the war “is disrupting international tourist flows and redirecting some demand towards destinations perceived as safer.”
“Many European travelers who are hesitant to travel to the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean (Turkey, Greece, or Egypt), or destinations even closer to the Gulf are turning to Spain and Portugal,” adds the specialist.
The war “may change the destination choice for some families or lead to adjustments in other expenses,” agrees Pedro Aznar, an economist at the Spanish business school Esade, who also believes his country is benefiting from a “substitution effect.”
Other destinations have also benefited. Zakaria Meliani, operations manager for Balima Résidences – a short-term rental player in Rabat, Morocco – assured AFP that he has seen a shift in trends.
“Usually, we start the season in mid-May, and it started as early as the end of Ramadan (shortly after the start of the war at the end of February),” he said: travelers who had planned vacations to Lebanon, Dubai, Oman, or Asia with a stopover in the Gulf have “turned to Morocco.”
“At this stage, Moroccan tourism is showing performances in line with our initial forecasts, with a 5% growth at the end of April 2026, despite an uncertain geopolitical context,” emphasized the Moroccan Minister of Tourism, Fatim-Zahra Ammor to AFP.
