Middle East conflicts affect whale groups at the tip of Africa
By Actu Editorial Team
Published on
In an unexpected cascade effect, wars and tensions in the Middle East are affecting whale groups living part of the year in the ocean at the tip of Africa.
The risks of collisions between ships and cetaceans off South Africa have significantly increased with the rerouting of traffic from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope, according to a scientific report presented this month to the International Whaling Commission (IWC), consulted by AFP.
Collisions, a major cause of whale mortality
This issue has long been identified as a significant problem by scientists and environmental advocates. Collisions, often under-documented, constitute a major cause of mortality among whales, according to an article published in 2024 in the journal Science.
Videos posted by sailors on social networks convinced Els Vermeulen, head of the whale research unit at the University of Pretoria, to study this risk at the tip of Africa.
«”We saw people on cargo ships crossing dense pods of humpback whales saying ‘Wow, look at all those beautiful whales we see.’ For me, it froze my heart because we knew they were hitting some of them”,â» she told AFP.
Maritime traffic doubles at the Cape of Good Hope
The impact of the increased traffic could be analyzed as it preceded the war led by the United States and Israel against Iran. Since November 19, 2023, Houthi rebels in Yemen, supported by Iran, had attacked and captured the Galaxy Leader cargo ship. This episode, followed by others targeting merchant shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, disrupted maritime traffic.
The halving of commercial vessel passages through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and Suez – between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean – resulted in a doubling of traffic at the Cape of Good Hope, according to data from the International Monetary Fund’s Portwatch platform.
«”The animals did not have time to adapt”â»
Between March 1 and April 24, 2026, an average of 89 commercial vessels passed through the Cape of Good Hope daily, compared to 44 in the same period in 2023.
Estimates of maritime traffic density have significantly increased since December 2023, as has the risk of collision (proportional to this density).
Even worse, «the fastest traffic, which poses the greatest risk of accidents, quadrupledâ», notes the document regarding boats traveling at over 15 knots (27.7 km/h). This is occurring as southern Africa has already been identified as one of the « high-risk collision areas », according to the Science article.
«”The animals did not have time to adapt to maritime traffic”,â» explains Chris Johnson of WWF’s Whale and Dolphin Protection Initiative to AFP.
«”One might think that when you hear a loud noise, you move away. But that’s not the case for some species”,â» he explains, describing the case of blue whales in the United States. «”When they hear a ship, they stop and dive just below the surface.â»
Alternative Route
For the southern right whale, the traffic intensification comes as « populations are recovering more slowly due to climate change », explains Els Vermeulen.
Another development is that humpback supergroups are now feeding seasonally near the South African city of Cape Town. While it is difficult to attribute this novelty to climate change, « it has been observed since 2011 », says Ken Findlay, a consultant in the blue economy. « This contributes to increasing the risk of collisions », he adds as a contributor to the report.
« As they feed, they are absorbed by something else, increasing the risks », concludes Els Vermeulen.
His report suggests an alternative navigation route that could, according to estimates, reduce the collision risk by 20% to 50%, depending on the species, while only adding 20 nautical miles to the route, negligible over distances of up to 10,000 nautical miles.
For example, the world’s largest shipowner, the Swiss MSC, has already modified its navigation routes for these reasons, off Sri Lanka or Greece.
More data needed?
To progress in this direction at the tip of Africa, more data is needed. Leading the Ocean Action Network NGO, Estelle van der Merwe envisions an app or location sharing via messaging to collect the data.
Additionally, onboard cameras whose images are analyzed by AI should offer interesting perspectives in the coming years.
« All available solutions and mitigation measures will be examined », assured the South African Department of Environment (DFFE) in a statement to AFP.
Source: AFP
Customize your news by adding your favorite cities and media with My News.
