The Domino Effect of War in the Middle East on Whales off the Coast of South Africa

In an unexpected chain effect, wars and tensions in the Middle East are affecting whale groups living part of the year in the ocean off the tip of Africa.

The risks of collisions between ships and cetaceans off South Africa “have significantly increased” with the rerouting of traffic from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope, according to a scientific report presented this month to the International Whaling Commission (IWC) consulted by AFP.

The subject has long been identified as a real problem by scientists and environmental advocates. Collisions, largely under-documented, are a “major cause of mortality in whales,” according to an article published in 2024 in the journal Science.

Videos posted by sailors on social networks convinced Els Vermeulen, head of the cetacean research unit at the University of Pretoria, to study this risk off the tip of Africa.

“The estimates of maritime traffic density have significantly increased since December 2023, as has the collision risk (proportional to this density),” notes the report led by Els Vermeulen.

Even worse, “the fastest traffic, which presents the greatest risk of accident, has quadrupled,” the document notes regarding boats sailing at over 15 knots (27.7 km/h).

All this while Southern Africa was previously identified as one of the “high-risk collision regions,” in the Science journal article.

“The animals didn’t have time to adapt to maritime traffic,” explains Chris Johnson to AFP, head of the WWF’s Whale and Dolphin Protection Initiative.

“For the southern right whale, the intensification of traffic comes as ‘population recovery has slowed due to climate change’,” explains Els Vermeulen.

Other changes include super groups of humpback whales now feeding seasonally near the South African city of Cape Town.

Her report suggests an alternative navigation route that could reduce collision risk by 20% to 50% depending on the species, while extending the journey by only 20 nautical miles, negligible over distances up to 10,000 nautical miles.

The world’s largest shipowner, Swiss MSC, has already changed its navigation routes for these reasons, off Sri Lanka and Greece.

To move forward in this direction off the tip of Africa, more data is needed. At the head of the Ocean Action Network NGO, Estelle van der Merwe envisions an app dedicated to collecting this data or a location sharing via messaging solution.

In a statement to AFP, the South African Ministry of Environment (DFFE) reassured that “all available solutions and mitigation measures will be examined.”

Published on May 11 at 09:39, AFP.