In Iran, neither peace nor war

A few hours after Donald Trump’s announcement Tuesday night (21.04) of the extension of the ceasefire with Iran in effect since April 8, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that they had intercepted two ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran continues to block this strategic passage off the Iranian coast, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied gas passes in times of peace. This blockade has become a lifeline for the Iranian regime, as the disruption of the strait drives up hydrocarbon prices and weakens the global economy.

According to the British agency UKMTO, Iranian shots reportedly also hit a container ship off Oman. Another cargo ship leaving the strait was also reportedly targeted, but the origin of the shots was not specified.

These incidents illustrate the fragility of the current ceasefire.

At the same time, the US military has also imposed a blockade in the area to prevent any ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports. Washington’s stated goal is to choke off the Iranian regime by depriving it of financial resources.

Donald Trump claimed that Iran was “financially collapsing” due to the blockade.

“Diplomatic Uncertainty”

In this war, which also plays out in communication, Tehran has assured that the American blockade has not impacted the country’s ability to procure essential goods and food for the population.

Diplomatically, the situation remains unclear. New discussions planned in Islamabad, Pakistan, at the beginning of the week did not take place. The American and Iranian delegations have not attended, as the US canceled their visit due to Iran’s refusal to release their representatives. Tehran conditions the resumption of talks on the lifting of the American naval blockade. Donald Trump vaguely stated that new negotiations could take place in the coming days.

On another front of the war, new direct discussions between Israel and Lebanon are set to take place on Thursday in Washington, according to the US diplomacy. A ceasefire is in place between Israel and Hezbollah, but both parties accuse each other of violating it.

“The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has caused fuel prices to rise worldwide.”

“Growth Forecasts Lowered”

The economic consequences remain disastrous worldwide. Germany, the leading European economy, has now halved its growth forecast for this year due to the energy crisis caused by the blockade of hydrocarbon transport in the Strait of Hormuz. GDP growth is expected to be around 0.5% compared to the previously predicted 1% before the Middle East war.

According to the German Minister of Economy, Germany “is once again at the bottom of the growth ranking within the EU, despite significant budgetary stimuli.” The country was already particularly affected by the war in Ukraine and its strong dependence on Russian gas.

Italy has slightly revised its growth forecast to 0.6% in 2026, while France expects 0.9%.