Specifically, how can Americans impose a blockade on Iranian ports? “We are not going to see a blockade of ports like in the 18th century, nor military ships firing on merchant vessels. In my opinion, the Americans will close the Gulf of Oman, at least between the port of Muscat, in the Sultanate of Oman, and the port of Gwadar, in southwest Pakistan, and will establish a filtering system similar to what they did off the coast of Venezuela a few months ago. American ships were deployed throughout the Caribbean Sea and even in the Atlantic, boarding or sending special forces by helicopter to all boats destined for or leaving Venezuela. Obviously, this requires a lot of intelligence work to identify the ships, since the United States has clearly stated that they will only block ships coming to or leaving Iranian ports.”
Iran denounces an act of “piracy”. Is the blockade decided by the United States legal? “No, it is totally illegal, just like the initial blockage by the Iranians and the toll they have put in place. We are in a war, and in war, there are no longer any rights that matter. In any case, the reaction of the Iranians, who immediately announced that they would attack Gulf ports, shows that the Americans hit where it hurts.
Could this American blockade make Iran capitulate or at least return to the negotiating table? “In this matter, the important thing is China’s reaction, which is one of the few states with influence on the Iranian regime. This is because China buys between 80% and 90% of Iranian oil. The Chinese are traders. They like stability and predictability. By calling on ‘all parties to show restraint,’ China clearly shows that the filtering barrier set up by the Iranians disturbs it. I would not be surprised if China quietly enjoys the fact that Americans are making it clear to the Iranians that the free movement of goods on the oceans is a principle that should not be tampered with. The Iranians will be squeezed by this decision.”
“We will slowly arrive at a resolution of the crisis”
Can we then expect a quick resolution of the conflict? “From the Americans’ point of view, time is the main enemy. They do not want the conflict to drag on because it is misunderstood and unpopular in the United States, because the midterm elections are approaching, because it disrupts global trade and puts its allies in the region in difficulty. All this destabilizes the world order, which benefits China. From their side, the Iranians will probably strike the Gulf ports, as they have announced. If the Gulf monarchies respond and carry out their own strikes, Iran will not hold out for very long. I think we will slowly arrive at a resolution of the crisis in the coming weeks. But the question to which no one is able to answer is, what form will it take?”
What is this “peaceful multinational mission” that France and Great Britain want to set up in the Strait of Hormuz?
“It is not an operational mission, in the sense that it will not unlock traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. It will not fire on anyone or board any ships. France and Great Britain are positioning themselves for the aftermath. They offer the protagonists a way out. It’s quite clever, because it will require an observation force in the Gulf.”
