Fragilized by geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the hantavirus, global tourism sees its post-Covid recovery compromised.
The global tourism sector, which was hoping to consolidate its rebound after the Covid-19 crisis, is facing a new zone of turbulence. Between the war in Ukraine, the escalation in the Middle East, and the emergence of a health risk with the hantavirus, an atmosphere of uncertainty weighs heavily on an industry representing more than 10% of the global GDP. Economic indicators are turning orange, indicating the sector’s hypersensitivity to external shocks.
A geopolitical context that reshuffles the deck
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, marked by the American-Israeli offensive against Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, has caused a major energy shock. The surge in the price of jet fuel directly impacts airfare prices, forcing airlines to revise their strategies. Several European carriers have already reduced their capacities, like Lufthansa, which has canceled thousands of flights to try to absorb the increase in operating costs.
This inflation spreads throughout the tourism value chain and forces households to make drastic budget choices, where leisure activities are often the first variable to be adjusted. According to a study by Ifop cited by the Alliance France Tourisme, four out of ten French people are considering modifying or postponing their vacation plans due to the international context. This phenomenon is global: American, Australian, and European travelers hesitate to commit, especially fearing conflict-prone air transit zones. Consequently, Middle Eastern destinations, which showed record growth rates in 2023 and 2024, are seeing their attendance plummet abruptly.
The hantavirus, a new factor of anxiety
In addition to the tense geopolitical climate, there is an unexpected health concern: the resurgence of hantavirus cases. Although authorities are trying to reassure, like Senator Philippe Tabarot, who said, “The French can travel as they wish,” the extensive media coverage of this virus, which can have a mortality rate of up to 40%, fuels a generalized sense of concern. Already heavily affected by the pandemic, cruise lines are once again forced to deploy reinforced health protocols to reassure a clientele that has become particularly skeptical.
France, between refuge destination and fragility
As the top global tourist destination, France is not immune to these upheavals. While the 2025 Treasury data showed an increase in tourism exports, this dynamic was partly based on the postponement of travelers avoiding the Middle East. More recent signals for spring 2026 are less encouraging. Sector professionals are noticing a decrease in the presence of foreign tourists, especially from Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United States, and express their concerns about an uncertain upcoming summer season. The perception of France being “too expensive” in the context of energy inflation also weighs on its attractiveness.
Territories are also affected. While some coastal areas like the French Riviera benefit from their reputation as a secure destination, the west and several rural areas are experiencing a decrease in attendance, prompting accommodation providers to increase promotional offers to attract customers.
Reinventing tourism to survive the crises
Paradoxically, this situation could offer opportunities. The “staycation” phenomenon, involving traveling close to home, is gaining popularity again. “France is becoming a refuge destination,” said consultant Dominique Lecea. European tourists could prioritize destinations that are close and accessible by train or car.
However, this proximity tourism is not enough to compensate for the loss of distant customers, especially from Asia and the Middle East, known for their high spending. In Parisian luxury hotels, some suites remain unoccupied, illustrating a feared scissor effect by professionals: a decrease in attendance coupled with an increase in structural costs.
The sector has already shown its resilience in the past, but the multiple crises now require a profound transformation. Diversifying markets, reducing dependence on air transport, upgrading offerings, and accelerating ecological transition appear to be essential levers to rebuild a more robust model. In the short term, the sector is sailing blind, punctuated by last-minute reservations, awaiting a more stable horizon.
Bernard BERTUCCO VAN DAMME via Press Agence.
