The rise in international tensions is compromising the fight against climate change, but is it also opening up new paths for action? Between states’ disengagement and weakening multilateralism, the levers of climate action are being redrawn. Interview with François Gemenne, a specialist professor in environmental geopolitics at HEC Paris.
Is the current geopolitical situation condemning climate action? Not necessarily. Tensions are slowing down action because it needs to be global. In an international cooperation regime, if countries’ goals are not aligned, the risk is that the action will dissolve. The main culprit at the moment is the United States. Their disengagement sends a very negative signal and creates a setback: it is difficult to ask others to do more if a major player withdraws.
Yet, the current crisis, notably with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, also reminds states that their dependency on fossil fuels is a geopolitical Achilles’ heel and a burden on their competitiveness. The risks of shortages have already led some Asian countries to close significant parts of their economies to save gas and oil. If we learn from this, countries may choose to accelerate their transition to no longer depend on energies whose price and availability they do not control, especially in the face of some presidents’ irrational decisions.
Can the solution to the crisis still be found in international collaboration? In recent years, the idea of multilateralism, the idea that we would all rationally converge towards a common goal, towards a “global village,” has been shattered by populism and isolationism.
The current volatility of energy prices may influence climate action. In a capitalist system, the most powerful regulatory tool is the price of goods. There is a paradox with the price of oil: if it is high, it encourages a shift to other forms of energy, like renewable energies, but makes oil investments profitable. If it is low, it discourages new investments in the sector but reinforces our dependence on fossil energies.
Ultimately, perhaps somewhat cynically, it is the influence of markets that is likely to act on climate transition. An example is in February, Donald Trump put up concessions in Alaska for auction that had no takers because the barrel price made the investment too heavy. Alaska’s ecosystem was saved by the market more than by activists or regulation. This trend may also be observed in renewable energies, such as solar, which will become increasingly profitable. Overall, we must continue to consider carbon pricing, which truly affects our energy consumption.
The international instability is leading many countries to worry about their energy sovereignty and to revive certain fossil energy development projects. What should be thought of this? Perspectives differ depending on the countries’ resources. In Europe, where there is no rich underground, sovereignty lies in renewable energies, which is good news. In Canada, having fossil resources pushes to exploit them to no longer depend on the United States or global flows, which obviously delays climate action.
But Canada could choose to approach the issue from the perspective of energy sobriety. Reassess lifestyles, renovate buildings, invest in renewable energies. Oil is not the only option.
Are climate change likely to worsen future geopolitical tensions? They will exacerbate global inequalities, that is certain. The countries least responsible for the problem are the most exposed to its consequences and risk becoming even poorer. Climate inaction could cost half of the global GDP by 2100, mainly affecting Southern countries.
These inequalities, which will have clear repercussions on development, may create significant migration movements. These migrations will mainly be internal to countries or regions, but they risk fueling populist movements and social tensions. Ultimately, they will contribute to worsening international tensions, such as those between Mexico and the United States. Not to mention the tensions around access to natural resources, which will continue to grow.
