The abduction of Nicolás Maduro by the United States army at the beginning of 2026 would have caused, according to traditional interpretations, a shockwave in global markets, especially in oil prices.
Markets actually “easily absorbed the event,” noted Tania Sollogoub, in charge of analyzing emerging countries and geopolitical risks at Crédit Agricole, in her latest publication in Perspectives.
According to the author, this apparent connection between geopolitical violence and the calmness of stock indices is not insignificant: it signifies a paradigm shift, indicating that markets seem to have integrated global geopolitical and economic disorder as an inherent variable. It remains to be seen, however, if the economy itself – particularly the trade of agricultural and agri-food products – can maintain resilience, and how it will adapt in an increasingly unstable world. The recent war in the Middle East and the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in navigation clearly illustrate this.
Integration of geopolitical risk as a structural variable of the global economy
The apparent lack of financial market reaction following the abduction of the Venezuelan president is the starting point of Tania Sollogoub’s analysis, who believes that geopolitics has ceased to be a surprising factor (or a disruptor) and has become a structural component of the global economic environment. She explains this by the profound shift in risk perception by financial operators. Geopolitics, which once represented an exogenous shock in a fundamentally stable economic order, has become a “permanent condition.”
The author cites the invasion of Ukraine by Russia as a turning point, an analysis that we fully share. The conflict was not treated as an isolated shock. On one hand, it is part of a context where a series of events seen as “ruptures” have occurred, such as Brexit, the election of Donald Trump in 2017, the confrontation between the United States and China, etc. On the other hand, the war had a measurable impact on real flows (energy, agricultural commodities) and therefore on global prices.
SOURCE: Newsletter No. 66 – Agriculture Strategies.
