Among military tensions in the Middle East and economic warfare between major powers, a clear trend emerges: controlling strategic dependencies becomes the central issue of the 21st century. Tensions over access to rare resources often trigger conflicts.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point in the struggle for energy dominance. The abrupt escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran in the region highlights the importance of mastering vital flows in contemporary geopolitics. The U.S. Navy’s seizure of an Iranian vessel prompted an immediate escalation, with Tehran threatening retaliation as diplomatic negotiations faltered. Markets reacted swiftly: Brent crude prices surged by around 5%, nearing $95 per barrel, while European stock markets declined due to energy uncertainty. In a region where almost a third of the world’s oil transported by sea passes through, Iran’s strategy is not just military; it relies on disrupting a crucial point in global trade. International relations history shows that these chokepoints like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca, and the Strait of Hormuz act as force multipliers. A relatively weak actor can create a disproportionate systemic effect. Iran understands this well: even without a military victory, the mere threat to energy traffic allows it to influence the strategic calculations of Washington, Europe, and China. This logic echoes the analyses of American historian Alfred Thayer Mahan on maritime power: controlling or disrupting trade routes remains one of the most effective forms of strategic projection.
But the real geopolitical transformation is no longer only in straits or seas; it has shifted to industrial supply chains. China has capitalized on this by tightening its controls over exports of rare earths and critical minerals essential for batteries, semiconductors, or green technologies. European companies in China now decry administrative procedures capable of halting the export of essential components at any time. This strategy reflects a broader transformation in globalization: the economy is no longer just a space for trade but has become a strategic rivalry battleground. For years, Washington has used financial sanctions and technological restrictions against Beijing. China’s response is to leverage its structural advantage in critical raw materials. This aligns with what economist Albert Hirschman described in the 1940s: trade relations can create asymmetric dependencies that become instruments of power. In the case of rare earths, the asymmetry is glaring: China largely dominates global production and refining. For Europe, the situation is particularly delicate. The European Union remains heavily dependent on the Chinese industry while facing a growing trade deficit with Beijing, fueling political debates on deindustrialization and economic sovereignty.
These two crises, energy in the Middle East and industrial in Asia, reveal a deeper mutation in the international order. Power is no longer solely measured in military divisions or nuclear arsenals, but in the ability to control the structural dependencies of the global system. Economist Henry Farrell and political scientist Abraham Newman speak of “weaponized interdependence”: global economic networks are becoming instruments of political coercion. The U.S. uses the dollar and financial systems to impose sanctions; China mobilizes its industrial chains; regional powers like Iran exploit their geographic position in energy flows. This evolution puts Europe in a paradoxical position. The continent remains one of the world’s largest trading powers, but it controls few of the infrastructures or strategic resources shaping globalization. Its energy, industrial, and technological dependence exposes it to multiple pressures. This is why Brussels is increasingly implementing policies of “strategic sovereignty”: energy diversification, industrial reshoring, strategies on critical materials. However, these policies face a fundamental reality: globalization has created a system of intertwined dependencies that is extremely difficult to dismantle without major economic costs. The world is thus entering a new phase of systemic competition where open conflicts, like those around the Strait of Hormuz, are just the visible surface of a deeper rivalry for control over the invisible power infrastructures.
