To try to ease the pressures caused by the aging population, Beijing has started to raise the legal retirement age. But challenges remain, starting with the deep inequalities that persist between rural retirees and their urban counterparts.
After a brief upturn last year, the number of marriages in China is declining again. Less than 1.7 million unions were registered in the first quarter, a traditionally busy time due to Chinese New Year holidays, marking the lowest total since the lockdowns in 2020. This is half of what it was a decade ago.
These figures are closely watched as they provide a reliable indication of future births in a country where having a child out of wedlock is rare. Logically, the decline in birth rates seen in recent years is expected to continue, despite the efforts by authorities, who have gone as far as taxing condoms.
The roots of this trend, observed in all advanced economies, run deep in China. They are exacerbated by slowing growth and labor market deterioration. The unemployment rate for those under 25 is over 16%, and many college graduates struggle to find jobs that match their skills. Therefore, even when they marry, young Chinese people are finding it increasingly difficult to achieve a sense of financial security and consequently postpone having their first child.
The slowing birth rate is causing China to depopulate, although it is starting from a very high level (1.4 billion inhabitants in 2025). It lost 3.4 million people last year and is expected to see its population decrease by around 60 million over the next fifteen years (slightly less than the population of France), according to estimates from the Rhodium Group, an independent research institute. In this context, the age pyramid is quickly shifting. The proportion of 20-39 year-olds now makes up only 26% of the Chinese population, compared to 31% a decade ago.
At the same time, the number of people reaching retirement age is on the rise, as the Chinese “baby boom” occurred in the 1960s, after the famines caused by Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward. According to official figures, there are currently 300 million retirees, and this number is projected to exceed 400 million by 2035, more than the population of the United States. The Chinese pension system is therefore facing strong pressures, especially as China is aging before reaching the wealth levels of Western countries.
Context: The article discusses the challenges faced by China due to an aging population and declining birth rates.
Fact Check: The content showcases the demographic shifts in China and the impact on the retirement system, highlighting the financial strains faced by the government.
