Donald Trump is applying pressure once again. The American president stated on Monday, May 11 that the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is now “on life support” after harshly criticizing Iran’s response to the American plan aimed at ending the conflict permanently. On the other side, Iran asserts its readiness to “retaliate” to any new attack.
After over a month of ceasefire, diplomatic discussions remain at an impasse. Both sides continue to exchange proposals through the Pakistani mediator to try to consolidate the ceasefire, but there have been no major breakthroughs.
From the White House, Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest response, calling it “good for the garbage can.” The American president then painted a particularly bleak picture: “The ceasefire is on massive life support, like when the doctor comes in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has exactly a one percent chance of surviving.'”
“Tehran is ready to ‘retaliate and give a lesson'” stated the president of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in response. Donald Trump also mentioned reconsidering the re-launch of an operation designed to protect ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by Iran since the Israeli-American offensive on February 28.
This mission was suspended on May 5, with Washington believing “great progress” had been made towards an agreement with Tehran – an agreement that ultimately never materialized.
Another factor that could escalate the situation: according to the Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates reportedly carried out strikes against Iranian oil installations on Lavan Island in the Gulf in April. This involvement has not been confirmed by Abu Dhabi but could signify a regional turning point.
“The greatest energy shock” occurred due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, stated that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, it would take months for the market to rebalance. Normalization might not happen until 2027.
Concerns about a “major humanitarian crisis” resulting from a prolonged blockade of the strait are also shared by the UN. Jorge Moreira da Silva, head of a UN task force, warned that a humanitarian crisis could occur “within a few weeks.”
Tehran shows no sign of surrender and is counting on the surge in oil prices and shortages to pressure Donald Trump to end the conflict without obtaining the concessions he demands, particularly on nuclear matters.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, despite an official ceasefire in effect since April 17, strikes between Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah continue. New discussions between Lebanese and Israeli officials are scheduled to take place in Washington on Thursday and Friday to try to pave the way for peace negotiations.
