SMEs: trust falls in the face of geopolitical shock

The degradation is taking hold. The 155th Grant Thornton confidence barometer for SMEs-ETIs, published in mid-April, confirms a sustainable shift in the economic climate. Conducted by OpinionWay among 220 executives, the study highlights a marked drop in optimism, in a tense international context.

“Mars warned us. April confirms: ETI and SME leaders are no longer facing a conjunctural shock, but a profound reorganization of global economic balances. Caution has settled into strategies, job growth has stalled, and choices are necessary. It is precisely in these moments that quality support makes the difference, the support that helps to decide, not just to wait,” declared Adam Nicol, president of Grant Thornton.

A sharp decline in confidence in the French and global economy

The signal is clear according to the study: only 22% of executives declare optimism about the evolution of the French economy, a historically low level since the end of the health crisis, compared to 66% a year ago. All sectors are affected, with a majority of worried players in industry, commerce, and services.

Internationally, the situation is even more degraded. Confidence drops to 18%, an unprecedented low since 2020. The tensions in the Middle East amplify the effects of the oil shock and disrupt global supply chains.

Activity: a generalized decline

Companies’ activity outlooks are also declining. This month, 66% of executives express confidence in their own company, a 10-point decrease in two months. The indicator falls below 70%, breaking the positive momentum observed in 2025. All sectors are affected: services decline to 75%, commerce to 65%, and industry to 61%. A homogeneous retreat reflecting widespread concern.

Until now resilient, the employment dynamic shows a clear slowdown. Only 11% of executives plan to increase their workforce, while 10% plan to reduce it. The employment balance drops by 1 point, signaling a fragile situation. This apparent stabilization hides a real risk of shifting into negative territory, in an uncertain environment.

Growth and investments under pressure

Growth prospects are contracting sharply: 39% of executives anticipate growth, compared to 55% in February. Conversely, stagnation becomes the dominant scenario for 50% of them.

Strategic choices are evolving. The percentage of companies stating that they are not concerned about certain investments is increasing, especially in R&D and international operations, reflecting a refocusing on immediate priorities. Furthermore, 26% of executives are considering external growth operations, with 10% being certain.

International tensions are once again the main concern for executives: 61% place geopolitical issues at the top of their worries. Additionally, 64% believe that the conflict in the Middle East influences their outlook.

Adaptation and refocusing strategies

Faced with this context, companies are adjusting their strategies. Nearly 59% anticipate an impact on their prices, mainly increasing, due to energy costs. Supply chains are also evolving: 53% of executives are considering changes, between diversification and supplier reduction.

Lastly, energy projects are being reassessed. Nearly half of executives foresee adjustments, between slowing down and accelerating investments. In this uncertain climate, certain issues such as skills, cybersecurity, and regulation are temporarily taking a back seat, a sign of a strategic refocus dictated by economic urgency.