Business Confidence Decreases Among French Companies
The 155th Grant Thornton barometer of confidence for SMEs and midcaps, published in mid-April, confirms a lasting shift in the economic climate. Conducted by OpinionWay among 220 business leaders, the study highlights a significant fall in optimism, in a context of international tension.
“March warned us. April confirms: the leaders of midcaps and SMEs are no longer facing a conjunctural shock, but a profound recomposition of global economic balances. Caution has taken root in strategies, employment is stagnating, decisions need to be made. It is precisely in these moments that quality support makes the difference, that which helps make decisions, not just wait,” said Adam Nicol, president of Grant Thornton.
Deteriorating Confidence in the French and Global Economy
The signal is clear according to the study: only 22% of leaders are optimistic about the evolution of the French economy, a historically low level since the end of the health crisis, compared to 66% a year earlier. All sectors are affected, with a majority of concerned players in industry, commerce, and services.
Internationally, the situation is even more degraded. Confidence falls to 18%, an unprecedented low since 2020. The Middle East geopolitical tensions are to blame, amplifying the effects of the oil shock and disrupting global supply chains.
Activity: General Decline
Companies’ activity prospects are also declining. This month, 66% of leaders are confident for their own company, a decrease of 10 points in two months. The indicator drops below 70%, breaking the positive trend observed in 2025. All sectors are concerned: services decline to 75%, commerce to 65%, and industry to 61%. A homogeneous decline reflecting general concern.
Previously resilient, employment dynamics show a clear slowdown. Only 11% of leaders plan to increase their workforce, while 10% expect to reduce it. The employment balance falls by 1 point, indicating a fragile situation. This apparent stabilization masks a real risk of shifting into negative territory, in an environment marked by uncertainty.
Growth and Investments under Pressure
Expectations for growth are significantly contracting: 39% of leaders anticipate progress, compared to 55% in February. Conversely, stagnation becomes the dominant scenario for 50% of them.
Strategic decisions are evolving. The percentage of companies not interested in certain investments is increasing, particularly in R&D and international projects, reflecting a refocusing on immediate priorities. Furthermore, 26% of leaders are considering external growth operations, with 10% certain about it.
International tensions resurface as the main concern for leaders: 61% rank geopolitical issues at the top of their worries. Additionally, 64% believe that the conflict in the Middle East influences their prospects.
Adaptation Strategies and Refocusing
Facing this context, companies are adjusting their strategies. Nearly 59% anticipate an impact on their prices, mainly an increase, due to energy costs. Supply chains are also evolving: 53% of leaders are considering modifications, ranging from diversification to supplier reduction.
Energy projects are being reevaluated. Over half of leaders foresee adjustments, between slowing down and accelerating investments. In this uncertain climate, some issues such as skills, cybersecurity, or regulation temporarily take a back seat, a sign of strategic refocusing dictated by economic urgency.
