The United Arab Emirates leave OPEC: Is this a turning point for the global oil market?

The United Arab Emirates officially left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday. This unexpected departure from a heavyweight in the cartel could reshape the global oil balance.

Published on 02/05/2026 at 06:22

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The announcement of the United Arab Emirates’ departure was made on April 28, with the exit taking effect on Friday, May 1. The move comes amidst strong internal tensions within OPEC+ regarding production quotas, as well as a regional crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil flows and accentuating differences among major Gulf producers. Established in 1960, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aims to coordinate production policies among its members to influence crude oil prices.

Often labeled a cartel, the organization operates on a simple principle: adjusting global oil supply to stabilize prices. Reduced production leads to price increases, while increased supply tends to lower prices. Over the decades, OPEC has expanded and now operates in tandem with OPEC+, an alliance including ten additional countries, such as Russia. Together, they represent about a third of global oil production. Within this group, the United Arab Emirates held a strategic position, ranking among the main producers with an estimated production of about 3.6 million barrels per day.

Beyond their current production, the Emirates have a major asset: the ability to significantly increase their production. The country has invested heavily to reach over 4 million barrels per day, with a stated goal of 5 million barrels by 2027. However, this increase in capacity has clashed with the quotas imposed by OPEC+, which limit each member’s production to regulate prices. By leaving the organization, Abu Dhabi frees itself from these constraints. The goal is clear: to produce more and sell its resources more quickly, amid a global energy transition where long-term oil demand could decrease.

Although Emirati authorities claim this decision is “not political,” it comes in a context of sometimes tense relations with Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC. Disagreements have emerged in recent years over production levels and certain strategic directions within the OPEC+ alliance. These former allies have been at odds on several foreign policy issues, with their dispute publicly escalating in December over Yemen, where they support rival factions. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, Abu Dhabi has not hidden its disappointment with its traditional allies, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, headquartered in Riyadh.

Short-term, this departure should not cause immediate upheaval in the market, as the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and exports constrained. However, medium-term consequences could be more significant. Freed from quotas, the Emirates could increase their production, injecting more barrels into the global market. It is difficult to imagine that this increase would not exert downward pressure on oil prices. Another possible consequence: a loss of regulatory capacity for OPEC, depriving it of a producer capable of quickly adjusting production in case of a shock.

Finally, this departure raises questions about the internal cohesion of the cartel. Several member countries have already been penalized for exceeding quotas, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, according to regular reports from the International Energy Agency. Even though no other departure is officially envisaged at this stage, the Emirates’ decision could fuel tensions and weaken the organization’s unity. With the exit of a major and flexible player, OPEC enters a new phase, where its ability to stabilize the global oil market could be further tested.