There is an expression that Donald Trump particularly likes: “you don’t have the cards”. He launched it at Volodymyr Zelensky during their verbal joust in the Oval Office last year.
In the confrontation between the United States and Iran, one may wonder today “who has the cards”? The American president acts as if it were him, but it is questionable. Yesterday, he tweeted that Iran had informed Washington that the country was in a “state of collapse” and requested the reopening of the blocked Strait of Hormuz, which is blocked by both Iran and the United States.
But in Tehran, it’s a different story. The atmosphere is not one of capitulation as the regime has survived thousands of American and Israeli bombings. The Revolutionary Guards, the tough guys now in charge of Iran, feel they hold a trump card with the Strait of Hormuz, holding tanker supply hostage. The reality is that Washington and Tehran are engaged in a war of nerves, following the bombings and missile attacks – each waiting for the other to crack.
The main Iranian asset, which is discussed in every newspaper, is the potential fuel shortages. What will be the price? What impact on the global economy? This context weighs heavily on Donald Trump as he risks backlash if his voters blame him for the higher cost of living.
The American president thought he had gained a decisive weapon by describing, in turn, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The goal was to deprive Iran of revenue from oil exports and the ability to import food, medicine, etc.
However, this strategy has many loopholes. Iran has vast land borders: Pakistan, and further away China, help it bypass the American blockade. Probably not enough to compensate for the closure of the sea route, but enough to hold on until Donald Trump gives in under the pressure of economic difficulties.
The resumption of bombings on Iran seems unlikely for the moment, unlike in Lebanon where the ceasefire is only partially respected. A simple capitulation by Iran also seems unlikely, contrary to the initial hopes of Americans and Israelis.
Therefore, the negotiated path remains. Iran has sent a three-step proposal to Washington: first the lifting of the two blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the world’s demand; then negotiating an agreement on nuclear and other issues. Donald Trump has already responded negatively, knowing that once the situation returns to normal in the Strait of Hormuz, it will be harder for him to obtain concessions from Iran on other issues.
Ultimately, Americans may have to accept an agreement that closely resembles the one negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015, which Donald Trump tore up in 2018. Iran will not give up its ballistic program, nor its regional influence.
If this were to be the conclusion of this crisis, it would be difficult for Donald Trump to describe it as a victory. Instead of demonstrating his power, this war will have shown its limits. Today, it’s Trump who doesn’t have the cards.
