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Oil raises geopolitical risk assessment about Iran

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Actualize the courses and the change in trend, adds statements from Chris Wright

London (awp/afp) – Oil prices rise on Wednesday, with the American interpretation of talks between Iran and the United States being less positive than initially suggested by Tehran.

On Tuesday, Iran ensured that Tehran and Washington had agreed in Switzerland on Tuesday on “a set of guiding principles” for a possible agreement regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. However, US Vice President JD Vance noted that differences persisted over American “red lines.”

The United States will prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons “one way or another,” added US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Wednesday on the sidelines of a summit in Paris.

Following this statement perceived as offensive, oil prices rose in the market.

Around 11:40 GMT (12:40 CET), the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent, for delivery in April, increased by 1.85% to $68.67.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in March, gained 1.93% to $63.53.

The main risk in the oil market in the event of military escalation is the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil production passes.

The market remains nervous as Iran and Russia will conduct military maneuvers on Thursday off the coast of Iran, while other exercises started on Monday under the auspices of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s ideological army, in the Strait of Hormuz.

Other exchanges between Ukrainians and Russians under American mediation took place in Geneva, but “different positions” still exist on “sensitive” issues, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The fact that these negotiations, which have major implications for the oil sector, remain a “stalemate” with an uncertain outcome explains “why oil prices are unable to break out of the current range” between $65 and $72 for Brent, according to Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM.

However, with oil supply still considered abundant and some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) reportedly ready to implement new production increases according to American press reports, the trend – excluding geopolitical risk – is rather bearish.

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